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China could veto sanctions against Iran â€“ but history suggests it wonâ€™t

12 February 2010 18:45 (UTC +04:00)

Baku â€“ APA. Now that Russia is exhibiting mounting disenchantment with Iran, a longtime ally, attention will be focused even more closely on China â€” the country which, of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, is the most opposed to sanctions, APA reports quoting timesonline.co.uk web-page.
Beijing has long adhered to a policy of non-interference in the affairs of other countries. It relentlessly opposes any action that might open the door to foreign meddling in its own internal affairs.
Its economic rise has, however, made it harder and harder to stay out of the geopolitical game. It holds the purse strings to much of the US national debt â€” as it bullishly reminded Washington on learning that President Obama was to meet the Dalai Lama and had signed an arms deal with Taiwan.
Chinaâ€™s trading relations with Iran are built on its reliance on crude oil imports because, for all its cash wealth, it is a country poor in natural resources â€” hence its scramble for Africaâ€™s subterranean riches. Sanctions on the energy sector â€” including a bar on inward investment in Iranâ€™s infrastructure â€” are unlikely, therefore, to appeal.
Precisely targeted financial sanctions may be marginally more palatable and could yet stand a chance. For all its recent baring of teeth in Washingtonâ€™s direction, China does not court international confrontation. Its latest assertiveness is aimed as much at making its own people feel better about their economic hardships as it is at reminding the US that Beijing is nipping at its heels.
Above all, China does not like to feel exposed: since it joined the Security Council as a permanent member in 1971, it has used its veto only twice. In the same period, the US has done so 76 times. In all that time, China has never voted against economic sanctions, although it has frequently abstained. It did exactly that even when Sudan was sanctioned over Darfur and then referred to the International Criminal Court, despite Chinaâ€™s lucrative interests there.
There is, therefore, little chance of persuading China to support sanctions against Iran in the time remaining â€” but hopes of bringing Russia over have brightened.
If so, history suggests China will hesitate to use its veto. If it abstains, then sanctions could pass. The question then is: will they work?