Political

Immediately after the announcement of the complete agreement on the draft peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Yerevan initiated provocations.

For several days now, the armed forces of Armenia have continued provocations along the conditional border. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Armenia has been intensively firing at the positions of the Azerbaijan Army along the conditional border.

With this move, Armenia once again resorts to its policy of playing a double game. On the one hand, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan tries to present himself as a supporter of peace to the international community, while on the other hand, ceasefire violations take place and intensify. Previous Armenian leaders also spoke of peace while simultaneously engaging in military provocations. Pashinyan follows the same path.

Ceasefire violation on the conditional border

Since March 4, Armenian armed forces have continuously fired at the positions of the Azerbaijan Army, resorting to new provocations. In recent days, intensive violations of the ceasefire have been recorded. On March 16, 17, and 18, the positions of the Azerbaijani Army were intermittently fired upon multiple times.

In an interview with APA, Fuad Abdullayev, an expert from the Center for Analysis of International Relations, stated that Armenia is attempting to manipulate the situation through deliberate statements and provocations on the border following the announcement of the peace agreement.

"To understand why Armenia resorted to provocations in the last two days, it is essential to pay attention to the preceding developments. After Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov announced that an agreement had been reached on the final text of the peace treaty with Armenia, Armenian officials began making deliberate statements. In particular, these statements can be seen as part of the recent provocations and a continuation of that policy. Official Yerevan is trying to create the impression that the agreement has already been concluded. However, as these actions did not yield the desired outcome, it appears that official Yerevan is looking for alternative options, one of which is to provoke incidents in the border zone."

The expert noted that the statements of Armenian officials, as well as the provocations on the border, are part of the country's two-faced foreign policy and pressure strategy: "The main purpose of these provocations is based on several factors. One of them, of course, is to weaken Azerbaijan's international position during the peace agreement negotiation process and to portray our country as an unconstructive party. Such manipulations are one of Armenia’s usual tactics. During the 30-year occupation period, the Armenian authorities consistently used similar methods during peace talks, resorting to provocations to create pressure on Azerbaijan in the international arena."

Psychological warfare or lack of discipline?

In the modern era, military confrontations take place not only on physical battlefields but also on psychological and informational fronts. Recently, alongside ceasefire violations, Armenian soldiers at the conditional border have been resorting to such tactics as well. Armenian soldiers serving at combat posts on the conditional border have been using provocative language and gestures in an attempt to elicit emotional reactions from Azerbaijani troops.

This can be interpreted in two ways – either as a form of psychological warfare or as a sign of undisciplined behavior among Armenian soldiers...

It is possible that there may be instances of communication between servicemen on the conditional border. However, if these attempts aim to influence Azerbaijani servicemen, weaken their fighting spirit, or apply psychological pressure, this is clearly an element of psychological warfare.

The main goal of psychological warfare strategies is to undermine soldiers' morale and mental state, reduce their combat capabilities, and disrupt military discipline. Such methods, combined with information manipulation, form complex actions aimed at misleading the international community. This is one of the primary methods of psychological provocation, designed to push soldiers to their limits and cause uncontrolled behavior.

If these actions stem from individual indiscipline and are not based on a specific strategy, then they can simply be considered a discipline problem.

It is no secret that discipline in the Armenian Army is weak. The fact that some Armenian soldiers, on their own initiative, attempt to communicate with Azerbaijani soldiers serving at the border may indicate corruption within the army, non-compliance with discipline rules among personnel, and a lack of coordination at the administrative level.

However, a political analyst believes that the Armenian side may aim to exert psychological pressure on Azerbaijan's military personnel to provoke a ceasefire violation on one hand, and weaken the morale and psychological state of soldiers on the other: “I think that during the process of agreeing on the peace treaty, Armenia is deliberately trying to create tension in the conditional border zone while also attempting to present Azerbaijan as an unconstructive party in the peace process to the international community. I do not rule out that the EU monitoring mission has also become an instrument of these provocative actions by the Armenian authorities. After the provocations occur, they are immediately sent to the scene. However, the Armenian leadership must understand that the conditional border zone is completely under the surveillance of the Azerbaijan Armed Forces. If necessary, all existing evidence regarding these provocations can be presented, and this has already been proven several times. In general, the unstable geopolitical situation in the world and ongoing events inevitably affect our region as well. In such circumstances, it becomes more challenging to predict future developments. However, I do not rule out that Armenia may continue such provocations.”

The purpose of Armenia's provocations

Armenia’s provocations are occurring at a time when negotiations on the peace agreement have intensified, clearly demonstrating that Yerevan is not interested in the peace process. Such provocative actions are solely aimed at destabilizing the region and pose a significant obstacle to building mutual trust between the parties. This policy of Armenia contradicts both regional security and international law. In this regard, continuing such actions could lead to heightened tensions and new dangerous escalations in the future.

To ensure the successful continuation of the peace process and the strengthening of stability in the region, it is essential for Armenia to refrain from such actions. The Armenian government must understand that a policy of constant tension and confrontation serves neither the country's economic development nor social well-being. On the contrary, maintaining conflict and military provocations severely damages Armenia’s regional and international reputation, deepening its economic and political isolation.

It is also crucial for the international community to take a principled and consistent stance on this issue. Armenia’s provocations should be assessed within the framework of international law, and effective mechanisms must be developed to prevent such actions.

According to Fuad Abdullayev, the purpose of Armenia's provocations at the border is to draw the attention of the international community to the South Caucasus: “This step serves their goal of strengthening their position on the international stage and creating the impression that they are under threat. In addition, the current socio-political situation within Armenia may also be one of the reasons behind these provocations. Recently, various social groups have been holding regular protest rallies in the country, and dissatisfaction with the government has been increasing. In this context, the Armenian government may aim to divert public attention from internal problems by carrying out provocations in the border zone with Azerbaijan. Another important point is that Armenia's resort to such provocations during the peace agreement negotiation process clearly demonstrates that they do not actually want peace. In fact, over the past four years, Armenia has tripled its military budget and continues to regularly acquire arms. This shows that they are not prepared for peace. The fact that Armenia, with a debt of approximately 13 billion US dollars, is increasing its defense spending and purchasing modern offensive weapons contradicts their alleged commitment to peace. Through these provocations, Armenia is trying to portray itself as a proponent of peace. However, the reality is quite the opposite — Armenia is, in fact, preparing for war and attempting to disguise it.”

The professionalism and composure of the Azerbaijani Army

Against the backdrop of Armenia's provocations, the behavior of Azerbaijani soldiers is also noteworthy.

The Azerbaijan Army demonstrates a high level of professionalism and discipline, refusing to fall for such provocations. Azerbaijani soldiers, disregarding both the enemy's armed and psychological attacks, act calmly and thwart their plans. This once again proves the high level of combat and psychological readiness of the Azerbaijan Army.

However, Fuad Abdullayev has noted that continued provocations by Armenia could potentially lead to a military confrontation: “By taking these steps, Armenia is clearly showing that it is not ready for peace — or rather, that it does not actually want peace. Instead, it aims to prolong the process to acquire new weapons and buy time. It appears that the Armenian government is once again chasing empty dreams. Relying on the unfounded political support of France and other patrons, Armenia attempts to escalate tensions in the region, disrupt the peace process, and create conditions that could lead to a new war in the future. However, I must emphasize that if Armenia continues with these provocations, the Azerbaijan Army is fully prepared to respond appropriately. If Armenia takes such a step, it will deeply regret the consequences. Yerevan should not forget that the 'Iron Fist' remains in place.”

The Azerbaijani state and army, based on peace and security, do not fall for Armenia's provocations and take necessary measures to protect the inviolability of its borders. So far, the Azerbaijan Army has only undertaken defensive measures and has not resorted to any provocative actions.

Armenia, in turn, should not create artificial obstacles to peace but rather participate sincerely in the process and abandon attempts to disrupt negotiations through military provocations. For the sake of lasting stability and security, Armenia must change its policy, contribute to ensuring peace in the region, and fulfill its international obligations. Otherwise, such destructive approaches will lead to dangerous consequences not only for Armenia but for the entire region. Undoubtedly, Yerevan will bear the heaviest blow.

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