The results of the parliamentary elections held in Armenia showed that society made its choice taking into account the geopolitical changes and new realities that have emerged in the region in recent years. These results emerged not only as a consequence of Armenia's internal political processes, but also under the influence of the new security and cooperation environment taking shape in the South Caucasus. In this regard, one of the main factors determining the election outcome was the regional policy pursued by President Ilham Aliyev and the peace agenda between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which is an integral part of that policy.
In the post-war period, Azerbaijan has played a decisive role in shaping the new political realities that have emerged in the region. Azerbaijan’s successful military, political and diplomatic steps aimed at restoring its territorial integrity and sovereignty and ending the occupation have also compelled the Armenian political elite to seek new approaches. In this context, one of the main factors determining the election results was precisely the new realities that have emerged in the region and Azerbaijan and its leader, who are the architects of these realities. Drawing conclusions from the events of recent years, Armenian society has begun to understand more clearly that the normalization of relations with Azerbaijan and lasting peace have no alternative.
The peace initiative came from victorious Azerbaijan
It should be particularly noted that despite being the victorious side after the 44-day Patriotic War, it was Azerbaijan that came forward with a peace initiative. President Ilham Aliyev proposed the normalization of relations with Armenia in order to ensure lasting stability in the region and put forward basic principles based on the norms and principles of international law for this purpose. This approach demonstrated Azerbaijan’s intention to create a long-term environment of peace and cooperation in the region.
It was precisely as a result of this policy that new opportunities for cooperation began to emerge in the region. The Armenian leadership also gradually came to understand that continuing a policy of confrontation did not serve the country’s development prospects and that the peace agenda was a more rational choice.
Cooperation prospects strengthen the peace agenda
In the subsequent period, the support of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for the policy pursued by President Ilham Aliyev made it possible for the peace agenda to produce practical results. Following the Washington meeting, steps were taken to strengthen stability and security along the border between the two countries. The prospect emerged of opening transport links in the region and eliminating the communication restrictions that Armenia had faced for many years. This promises new economic opportunities and transit advantages not only for Azerbaijan and Armenia, but for the region as a whole.
At the same time, prospects such as strengthening Armenia’s energy security, developing trade relations, and integrating into regional economic projects are also on the agenda within the framework of future cooperation. Expanding contacts between civil society institutions, organizing mutual visits, and promoting public dialogue also serve as important elements of the peace process. One of the most important points is the gradual weakening of the rhetoric of confrontation that dominated the region for many years and the emergence of the cooperation agenda as a priority.
The results of the elections in Armenia can be assessed not only as the outcome of internal political processes, but also as confirmation of the new geopolitical realities taking shape in the region. The architect of the policy that created this reality is President Ilham Aliyev. The message now conveyed by Armenian society is that not confrontation and revanchism, but cooperation and peace, should be the main factor determining the future of the region. This can be considered an important political indicator for the establishment of lasting peace and stability in the South Caucasus.
Azerbaijan’s expectations: Transition from the Political Stage of Peace to the Legal Stage
Following the elections held in Armenia, the main focus will now shift from the election results themselves to what political decisions those results will lead to. Because from Azerbaijan’s perspective, the issue is not whether Pashinyan remains in power or which political force wins. The main issue is whether Armenia will confirm the peace policy it has declared in recent years through concrete legal and institutional steps.
In recent years, some progress has been achieved in relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Steps have been taken toward border delimitation, stability has been restored along the state border, and the parties have reached agreement on a large part of the text of the peace treaty. However, Baku believes that there are still fundamental issues awaiting resolution in order to achieve long-term and sustainable peace.
At the top of these issues is the removal of elements remaining from the period of conflict within Armenia’s political and legal system. Despite the new situation that has emerged in the region in recent years, various circles are still trying to preserve the political agenda of the past. According to Azerbaijan’s approach, if Armenia truly accepts the new regional realities, then the political and ideological mechanisms that contradict those realities should also be eliminated.
The complete removal of the Karabakh issue from Armenia’s political agenda
One of Azerbaijan’s main expectations is the complete removal of the Karabakh issue from Armenia’s domestic and foreign policy agenda. This is because the Karabakh issue has already been resolved from the perspective of international law, and a new geopolitical reality has emerged.
In this regard, Baku believes that the activities of various structures, institutions, and initiatives operating both within Armenia and abroad that seek to preserve the agenda of the former conflict period should be brought to an end. This is because the existence of such mechanisms is not consistent with the spirit of the peace process and could create opportunities for new political manipulation in the future.
In particular, the existence of organizations operating in various countries and presenting themselves as structures related to Karabakh is one of the factors that contradict the normalization policy declared by official Yerevan.
The Constitution issue: The main test of the peace process
One of the most important issues Azerbaijan focuses on concerns Armenia’s Constitution. Baku has long stated that the existence of provisions in Armenia’s fundamental law that are associated with territorial claims against Azerbaijan constitutes one of the main legal obstacles standing in the way of the peace process.
International practice shows that long-term peace agreements are built not only on political understandings but also on legal guarantees. Therefore, Armenia’s adoption of a new Constitution through a future referendum and the legal elimination of all territorial claims are considered important steps for ensuring the sustainability of the peace process.
In fact, this issue is strategically important not only for Azerbaijan but also for Armenia itself. This is because the elimination of legal contradictions could prevent revanchist forces, both within the country and abroad, from using these issues as political tools in the future.
The peace treaty will determine the future of the region
One of the main issues that will come to the forefront after the elections will be the signing of the final peace agreement. Although the parties have achieved significant progress in this direction in recent years, the process has not yet been fully completed.
If the Armenian authorities use the new political mandate they have obtained to take steps toward resolving the remaining legal and political issues, an entirely new phase could begin in the region. In this scenario, the South Caucasus could leave behind the stage of conflict that has endured for many years and move toward a model of cooperation, transport connections, economic integration, and mutual interdependence.
This will create new opportunities not only for Azerbaijan and Armenia, but for the region as a whole. The development of transport corridors connecting East and West, the expansion of energy cooperation, the increase in trade turnover, and the attraction of foreign investment are processes that will be possible precisely under conditions of lasting peace.
Pashinyan must complete the rocess
Ultimately, the elections in Armenia have produced an important decision regarding the country’s political future. However, the most important outcome of the election will be determined not on election day, but in the post-election period.
If Nikol Pashinyan’s government is able to direct the mandate it received from voters toward real political reforms, legal changes, and the completion of the peace agenda, the 2026 elections could be regarded as a turning point in Armenia’s history. Otherwise, the window of opportunity that has emerged in the region will not be fully utilized.
In this regard, the main outcome of the Armenian elections is not Pashinyan’s victory. The main outcome is that, for the first time, Armenian society has openly given a mandate to a political course that is aligned with the new regional realities. Now, whether that mandate will be transformed into concrete decisions and, ultimately, into a final peace agreement with Azerbaijan will determine the future of the entire region.
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