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Russiaâ€™s new national security conception: Political forecasting or Kremlinâ€™s plans - ANALYSIS

09 February 2009 11:39 (UTC +04:00)

Analysts forecast that struggle for a control over energy sources in the Caspian Sea will cause military confrontation in the nearest future

Baku. Vugar Masimoglu-APA. Assembly of Russian Security Council is expected to approve new national security conception on February 20. This important document covers targets leading ahead till 2020, expectations, Russiaâ€™s important role in the world, possible jeopardy and measures to prevent them. The valuable part of the document envisages forecasts of Russian analysts on developments, which can happen during the next decade.

Political forecasting is a spinal column of national security conception and depends on successful forecasting of realization of targets. Recent developments coincided with prognostics in the conception and it shows an academic level of political analysis. The interesting fact is that average and long-term prognostics justify themselves in tactical moment.

Forecasted energy wars. The document covers forecasts on aggravation of struggle over energy sources in the world. These predictions can be grouped as follows:
a) Competition for control over energy sources will become aggravated in long-term prospects in the world.
b) International policy will focus on achievement of exit to energy resources.
c) Main objects of the struggle are a) Near East, b) Barents Sea, c) other regions of Arctic, d) Caspian Sea, e)Central Asia.
d) Struggle over energy resources can cause military confrontation in the world.
e) Energy wars can be resulted with violation of balance occurred in borders of Russia and allied states, increase of nuclear weapon-owned countries.

â€œGas warâ€. As seen Russia does not rule out â€œenergy warsâ€ in the near, middle and perspective plan. The interesting point is the start of Russia-Ukraine energy war, which paralyzed Europeâ€™s energy supply soon after the details of the conception were announced. This war should be viewed as the simulation of potential â€œenergy warsâ€ envisaged in the national security conception of Russia. At least the causes, parties (European Union, USA, Russia, Ukraine, post-Soviet countries having energy resources), development and results of the â€œgas warâ€ completely coincide with the scenario forecasted in the conception. The question arises: â€œCould the analysts exactly forecast the processes, or are the plans of Russia for the next 12 years given as forecasts in the conception?â€. The second version is more acceptable, because the simulation of other scenarios forecasted in the document has also been observed in the past two months. These are the forecasts of analysts concerning â€œhot spotsâ€ in the world.

Forecasts on conflicts. Russians suppose that by 2020 the conflicts in various regions of the world will foment and it will have a negative impact on the international situation. According to the national security conception, conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, South Asia and African countries, Korean peninsula will increase the international tension. Of course, the above-mentioned conflicts may foment any time, it is not difficult to forecast it. But the interesting point is that the document says â€œthe conflicts will foment and have negative impact on the international situationâ€.

Gaza Strip. Soon after the document was made public, Israel launched large-scale operations in Gaza Strip and it proved another forecast of Russian analysts. After a long time Israel-Palestine conflict fomented able to change the balance of forces and interests in the region. The conflict has serious results, it damaged Israel-Turkey relations, strengthened European Unionâ€™s position in the Middle East and caused serious divergence in the Muslim world. Again everything coincides with the scenario forecasted in Russiaâ€™s national security conception. Is the realization of the forecast was connected with the professionalism of the analysts preparing Russiaâ€™s national security conception or with Moscowâ€™s main role in the realization of the scenarios given as forecasts?

Korean peninsula. Tensions in the Korean peninsula can be an example for justification of the political prognoses made in the concept. The North Koreaâ€™s quitting of all treaties with South Korea, prospects of military confrontation in the Yellow Sea, Pyongyangâ€™s intention to topple the Seoul government are coinciding with the prognosis made in the concept that â€œthe conflict in Korean peninsula can lead to the international crisis and can have a negative impact on the international situationâ€. The issue remains uncertain: political farsightedness or realization of the political plans presented as a prognosis?

Collective Security Treaty. Increase of the role of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) can be last example for simulation of the political prognoses in reality. CSTO last week decision to create united rapid forces and Russian president Dmitriy Medvedevâ€™s statement about turning of CSTO into the NATO-standard organization confirmed that one more prognosis is on the way of realization. 100-percent tactical justification of the prognoses made in the concept made us to come to a conclusion: â€œThe Russian national security concept prognoses are the tactical and strategic plans of the country against the United States, its main rivalâ€.

Azerbaijan. What a place Russia gives to Azerbaijan in its national security concept? How will the Russiaâ€™s political and military plans for near future impact on Azerbaijan? It is difficult to answer these questions concretely because the full text of the document was not announced yet. The only point related to Azerbaijan among the theses of the concept is that the Caspian basin will turn into one of the main objectives of the struggle for global energy sources. According to the above analysis, turning of the Caspian basin into the arena of the international rivalry for the energy sources is among the Russiaâ€™s political plans. It is difficult to answer the question how Moscow will realize this plan. The concept also makes prognosis about increase of rivalry to control the world energy resources, Caspian basin as one of the main objectives of this struggle, developing of the energy struggle to the military confrontation and resulting of energy wars with the disbalance (!) on the borders of Russia and ally countries. It partially makes clear the Russian plans on the Caspian basin in the next years. It will be seen in near future are the assumptions on the Caspian basin a prognosis or political plans.