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Barack Obamaâ€™s victory: Will Washington change its views on the South Caucasian policy and â€œArmenian genocideâ€? â€“ ANALYSIS

Barack Obamaâ€™s victory: Will Washington change its views on the South Caucasian policy and â€œArmenian genocideâ€? â€“<font color=red> ANALYSIS </font>

05 November 2008 13:40 (UTC +04:00)

Baku. Vugar Masimogluâ€“APA. US presidential elections finished with expected results. Barack Obama, who defeated such serious rival like Hillary Clinton in the primaries and promised fitting struggle to John McCain, justified the hopes. One of the objective laws of the US elections is that Republicans and Democrats replace each other in the power. From this view, the Democratic victory was expected in the elections after 8-year of Republican administration.
This probability completely justified itself â€“ the Democrats won the White House and majority in both houses of the Congress. Only surprise is that the Democrats get own back with the black candidate. Obamaâ€™s skin tone didnâ€™t prevent him from the victory because he was the candidate of not the black people, but the Democratic Party. It is reality that black man will lead the United States in the next four years and Obamaâ€™s victory became the history already and now we have to think about the questions related to the impact of election results on the word processes, US role at the international arena, as well as on the policy toward the South Caucasus and Turkey.

There is one reality that the election results will not cause serious changes in US foreign policy, including its position on the South Caucasus. Statements made by Barack Obama and his political advisers show that the foreign policy will be continued with inconsiderable changes. Political adviser to the Democratic candidate Celeste Wallander said that main priorities would be seeking of opportunities for cooperation with Russia, prevention of WMD proliferation, Iranian nuclear program and increasing of EU role in the worldâ€™s political order, particularly in the relations with Russia.

The new government will continue war on terrorism like its predecessor and Barack Obama stated it as soon as he elected. He hinted to the continuation of US military presence in Afghanistan and Iraq. Obamaâ€™s administration can change only policy toward African countries paying much attention to their problems. However the democrats are not expected to make serious corrections in the policy of their predecessors toward the Middle East, Arab world and the South Caucasus as well.

American voter thinks differently every after every two elections and it resulted with election of democrat candidate (irrespective of race) after eight-year power of republicans. Serious difference between democrats and republicans is linked with an approach toward social programs. Democrats prefer to persuade a social policy, but main goal of republicans is to protect interests on largeâ€“scale capital and raise issues on security of the country.

World financial crisis, increase of military expenses during power of George Bush, social problems gave chance for Democrats to win the elections. The society, which needs serious changes in the solution to social problems, does not care about race of person in the power and American elector is not any political force and approved their will on the solution to their problems by electing their President. One of the main priorities of Obama will be solution of social problems. Foreign policy, security and political hegemony over the world will not stay in the background during tenure of Democrats.

We can characterize change of the government in the US as follows:â€ Republicans increasing military expenses directs USA to the target and this step causes to economic crisis as time passes. Democrats protecting success of the US in foreign policy focus on settlement of social problems â€œ. Main priorities of Obama Administration are to defend successful foreign policy of the US and to solve social problems. Therefore, there will not be serious changes in foreign policy of the country. It is not correct to expect serious changes in USA-Azerbaijan relations, the USâ€™s position on Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

Essence of USA should be changed to make any changes in this aspect, because interest of state, not individuals form foreign policy of the country. We can say analogical ideas on recognition of so-called Armenian genocide. Irrespective of power of republicans or democrats, recognition of so-called Armenian genocide by the Congress can be resulted with unwished situation on USA-Turkey relations. The recognition of so-called genocide is an additional problem for official Washington, which persuades his activity in the region (especially in Iraq, Iran and Syria) with support of Turkey. So-called Armenian genocide has not been recognized in the US by now irrespective of election of any President. Essence of the US should be changed to realize wish of Armenians.