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Lawrence Sheets: â€œI do not think the situation in Georgia will have any impact on Nagorno Karabakh conflictâ€

02 September 2008 08:39 (UTC +04:00)

-How do you feel in your new post?
-I took office on August 7 and immediately was engaged in the situation in Georgia. The situation remains tense there. Thatâ€™s why I had almost no time to think of my new position. Anyway, Caucasus is not a new place for me â€“ I have been working in the region as a journalist for a long time and have just started working in the International Crisis Group.

-How do you think the further developments will be in Georgia?

-It is hard to forecast this situation, it is hard period. This process will have various impacts on everybody. Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. But the question is how real the independence is. These regionsâ€™ dependence on Russia is obvious, therefore these regions will fall under the influence of Russia. Political consequences of this act are not known yet. I am concerned about the state of human rights in the region. I am concerned that Ossetians set fire to Georgian villages in the territory of South Ossetia and drive out Georgians from their lands. It is hard to predict how the consequences will be and the process will develop. The situation is of impulsive character.

-Turkey initiated to establish Caucasus Stability Pact. How real is this initiative?

-Turkey has close relations with Western countries. It is early to speak about the realization of this platform, because I do not know the essence of this initiative. However, this initiative will help normalize the situation in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. I think Russia will not like Turkeyâ€™s acts. Turkey tries to be more loyal. We witness Turkeyâ€™s efforts to normalize its relations with Russia. On the other hand, realization of this platform will depend on the distribution of the power balance.

-It is rumoured about the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations recently. Can this factor affect on the Turkish-Azerbaijani relationship?

-Turkey tries to normalize relations with Armenia now. The state is making diplomatic steps. Both countries have to open borders and to restore the frozen relations. It is important for the economy and the development of entire region. I donâ€™tâ€™ think that this step will affect on Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. I know negative statements made in Azerbaijan on this issue, but all these statements were made at the informal level. I donâ€™t think that Azerbaijan will protest the development of Turkish-Armenian relations because it is not top issue for Azerbaijan now. The country has other important issues, including energy problem. At the same time Russian influence on Azerbaijan is also the factor.

-What does cause Azerbaijanâ€™s balanced policy toward the situation in Georgia?

-Azerbaijan and Georgia are closely cooperating and these countries are GUAM members. However this factor is not reflected in Azerbaijanâ€™s foreign policy. The country has own independent and pragmatic foreign policy. To say the truth I was not surprised with Azerbaijanâ€™s reaction. Azerbaijan is in very difficult situation and doesnâ€™tâ€™ want to edge relations with Russia.

-May Nagorno Karabakh conflict follow the fate of Ossetia and Abkhazia?

-I donâ€™t think so. These are different situations. Generally I donâ€™t consider that situation in Georgia can affect on the process of settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict. I will be surprised if it happens.

-Russian confrontation with the United States and France over Georgia is striking. How will these countries cooperate within the OSCE Minsk Group?

-It is quite good and different question. Current situation shadows positive development of the relations, but in any case I believe that OSCE Minsk Group will be one of the few formats where Russia, France and the United States will continue their constructive cooperation.