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Armenia-Turkey football match against the background of violated strategic balance in Caucasus â€“ ANALYSIS

Armenia-Turkey football match against the background of violated strategic balance in Caucasus â€“<font color=red> ANALYSIS </font>

01 September 2008 14:03 (UTC +04:00)

Though Abdullah Gulâ€™s visit to Armenia aims at watching football match, this visit has more political weight. For the first time in the history of Armenia a Turkish President will visit the country. What makes this visit inevitable? Official reason is to watch a football match, unofficial reason â€“ Turkeyâ€™s intention to show its interest in the regulation of the relations with Armenia.

Outcomes of Russia-Georgia military confrontation violated strategic balance in the Caucasus. The strategic balance formed in the Caucasus with the participation of all the players of the world and region policy after the collapse of the USSR changed in favor of Russia. This is a great danger for Turkey â€“ one of the main players of the ongoing processes in the region.

The reality is that the West and its main player in the region Ankara may lose levers of influence in the South Caucasus. If Russia forms levers of full influence over Georgia, it will mean Turkeyâ€™s extrusion from the South Caucasus. Therefore Ankara is going to review all the alternatives to protect its strategic interests in the region, as well as the alternative of regulating the relations with Armenia.

Besides, the European Union is laying down the extension of Ankara â€“ Yerevan relations as an indirect condition. The European Union, which once used Cyprus card against Turkey, now exerts pressure on Ankara in terms of Armenia. Unfortunately, it seems that Ankara will step back with respect to Armenia like in Cyprus issue.

Opening borders with Armenia is one of the chewed topics of the Turkeyâ€™s agenda and even serious political and economic circles are speaking about its possibility. If Ankara restores at least border trade it will stop mouth of the United States and European Union, which insist in establishing civil relations with Yerevan, and internal pressure groups as well.

Recently pro-government research centers in Turkey use the thesis that if Turkey opens borders with Armenia it will strength it weakened power in the South Caucasus. Supporters of this thesis think that by blockading Armenia Turkey increases its dependence on Russia. â€œIn contrary, widening of political and economic relations with Armenia can weaken its dependence on Russia and increase Turkeyâ€™s influence in the South Caucasian countriesâ€, they said. It seems Turkeyâ€™s initiative of the Caucasian Stability Pact also bases on this thesis.
Ankara is not cautious in the issues related to relations with Armenia unlike previous period.

a) Intensifying negotiations between the Turkish and Armenian foreign ministries,
b) Ankaraâ€™s non-rejecting of this fact, but justifying it,
c) Prime Minister Erdoganâ€™s statement â€œestablishing direct relations with Armenia is possible and our initiative aims close cooperation of five countriesâ€
d) and at last Abdullah Gulâ€™s consent to visit Yerevan to watch Armenia-Turkey match have a such meaning.

â€œRussiaâ€™s success in the influential war in the South Caucasus and European energy market caused serious changes in the Turkeyâ€™s foreign policy. Ankara made relations with Armenia one of its prioritiesâ€.

Turkish President Abdullah Gulâ€™s visit to Yerevan is realized under the dictation of complicated political situation. Will Ankara reach its goal with such gestures? It depends on the development of regional processes rather than Turkey and Armenia. It is doubtless that Turkish-Armenian approach will cause negative reaction in Azerbaijan. Ankaraâ€™s gestures to Armenia means de-facto refusal of three terms put forward for establishing relations with Armenia. One of these terms relates with Azerbaijan â€“ Armenian withdrawal from occupied Nagorno Karabakh and nearby regions. Is it really that Turkey refuses these terms? Turkish officials have to make clear this question.