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Russian political analyst: â€œThere will be no war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the main geopolitical players are not interested in outbreak of great war in the South Caucasusâ€ - INTERVIEW

09 July 2012 11:29 (UTC +04:00)

Moscow. Farid Akbarov â€“ APA. The interview of Director of International Research Analytic Center under Moscow State Institute of International Relations Andrey Kazantsev to APA

- There was a tension in the contact line of Azerbaijani and Armenian troops last month and this tension is still continuing. What is the likelihood of outbreak of a new war in the Caucasus?

- The ceasefire violation on two countriesâ€™ border doesnâ€™t mean an outbreak of war. But further escalation of situation can cause an open war. But the international situation shows that there will be no war, because the main geopolitical players are not interested I the outbreak of great war in the South Caucasus. Neither Russia nor the US are interested in the new conflict, because the US has problems in Afghanistan and the other regions. The outbreak of war is contrary to the interests of the European Union. Europe, which is in decline now, will not be able to spend its resources to this conflict. It doesnâ€™t also suit the interests of Turkey that is pursing a smooth policy with its neighbors. If one of the sides launches a war, the international community will immediately respond to it.

- How will Russia act in case of outbreak of Azerbaijan-Armenia war?

In this case, it will be difficult for Russia to express a position, because there is very close cooperation between Armenia and Russia. It is both political and military cooperation. At the same time Russia has close strategic cooperation with Azerbaijan. In my opinion, Russia will do best to prevent the outbreak of war. If one of the sides launches a war, the leaders of great countries will ask both Azerbaijai and Armenian presidents to stop the war

- The US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton visited the region last month. Tension on the Azerbaijan-Armenia border occurred at this period. How can you comment it?

- Yes, some political experts say that it was not sudden. It is claimed that the ceasefire on the Azerbaijan-Armenia border was seriously violated with the consent of West. But, it is not absolutely so, because the outbreak of war doesnâ€™t suit the USâ€™s interest. The US troops are still in Afghanistan. The US is afraid that outbreak of the conflict in South Caucasus again can cause their failure in Afghanistan. Outbreak of war in Nagorno Karabakh will cause problems in the north route, which plays a great role in cargo traffic to Afghanistan.

-How do you estimate the activity of the OSCE Minsk Group that is engaged in the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict?

-The activity of the OSCE Minsk Group during 20 years was that the conflict sides have not started a new war. In my opinion, the only result of this organization is that it didnâ€™t create conditions to launch the war and helped the sides in continuation of the negotiations processes.