Russian analyst: Azerbaijan must consider the consequences of the France’s withdrawal from the Minsk Group - INTERVIEW
-What can you say about the bill passed by the French Senate criminalizing the denial of the “Armenian genocide�
-This decision is not a well-advised step from political point of view. The U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s statement showed that France’s allies do not share its opinion. The decision of the French Senate will first of all have negative impact on Turkey-Armenia talks, make the situation even more tense. The protocols signed in Zurich have not yet been ratified by the Turkish parliament. Secondly, it will make the situation tense in the South Caucasus, particularly around Nagorno Karabakh. This is not the time for such a step. Everybody knows that Baku will support Ankara’s position. Europe’s position on this decision is not unambiguous, either. This seems to be the project of Sarkozy. It is a little bit difficult to understand this step of his. I think, the reason of Sarkozy’s step will be known after a while.
-The Armenian lobby in Russia says they are taking steps to achieve the passage of such a bill by the Russian Duma and have even sent a letter to the speaker of the Duma. Can Duma pass such a bill?
-In connection with the pre-election processes in Russia, for the time being the Duma can not pass a decision similar to the one passed by the French Senate. I think it is not right to make the Russian voter a hostage of the forcibly adopted issues. Professional historians, not the politicians should deal with history. This issue should be discussed beyond the political speculations. As you know, Turkey has offered Armenia to investigate the archives jointly. But Armenians have not agreed. There are historical facts that should be discussed, but no political assessment should be given to these facts. Despite all this, the French Senate passed the bill. It is very bad that it was done under the pressure of the lobby. Along with Armenian lobby, there is Azerbaijani lobby in Russia, too. The next anniversary of Khojaly tragedy will be marked in February. Like every year the Azerbaijani Diaspora will hold commemorate events in Russia.
- Azerbaijan claims that France can not be neutral in the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship and therefore it must be dismissed from this position. What do you think about that?
- Officials of the Azerbaijan’s Presidential Administration said France lost its neutral and objective status in the OSCE Minsk Group, which is mediating the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. It is logical. However the OSCE Minsk Group is a single mechanism for the settlement of the problem. One needs to consult with all members of the Minsk Group to reach a final resolution. Emotional response should be ruled out. Azerbaijan must consider the consequences of the France’s withdrawal from the Minsk Group. I understand the sensitivity of Azerbaijan in this issue. Baku supports Ankara unanimously, but one needs to think about the consequences of the France’s withdrawal previously. This is a problematic issue to choose a country to replace France in the Minsk Group. What country could replace France? Spain, Britain or Germany? Therefore Azerbaijan should carefully think about the possible consequences of this step.
- How do you value the President Medvedev’s mediation attempts for the solution of Nagorno Karabakh problem?
- Firs of all, we should thank to Dmitry Anatolyevich. Thanks to him, it was possible to organize the negotiations in the presidential level after Meindorf. He proficiently carried out the mediatory mission and tried to reach compromise between Azerbaijan and Armenia regarding the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.
- Will this mediation mission be continued if Vladimir Putin is elected?
- I think Russia’s future leader will continue this work. But I don’t believe that Putin will immediately address this issue after taking the power. He will first focus attention on the solution of Russia’s domestic problems. The Nagorno Karabakh conflict is always on the Kremlin’s agenda and it will be so further. This is a part of Russia’s security policy in the Caucasus.
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