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Sidar Global Advisors: France may not be regarded as an impartial mediator, due to the recent French Senate vote

26 January 2012 11:45 (UTC +04:00)

The Washington, DC-based Sidar Global Advisors (SGA) analytical group mentions in its next special research that France may not be regarded as an impartial mediator, due to the recent French Senate vote on 1915 events.

â€œAzerbaijan has condemned the vote in the French Senate and is lobbying for France to no longer be a co-chairman in the OSCE Minsk Group which is attempting to come up with a peaceful resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Certainly, the Armenian President has warmly thanked French lawmakers for passing the billâ€, says the research, APAâ€™s US correspondent reports.

According to the authors, in Turkey PM Erdogan has vehemently criticized the French parliament for approving a â€œdiscriminatory and racist billâ€, but Turkish policymakers are refraining from launching retaliatory measures and are instead pressing French Senators to appeal to the Constitutional Court.

â€œIn practice, there are a number of diplomatic, political and economic sanctions Turkey could impose. Diplomatic relations could be downgraded to the lowest possible level of charge dâ€™affaires. Turkish airspace and waters could be closed to French military aircraft and vessels. Educational and cultural ties would likely suffer. Officials in Ankara could further press their claims that France had committed genocide against the Algerian people in the 1950s and 1960sâ€, the research says.

In the meanwhile, because Turkey and France are both members of the World Trade Organization and the EUâ€™s Customs Union, Sidar analysts believe that, â€œit would not be possible for Ankara to organize an official boycott of French goods and servicesâ€.

â€œBut, with public opinion in Turkey enraged and all opposition parties backing the stance of the ruling AK Party, Turkish consumer bodies could stage unofficial boycotts of French products. If such a campaign was to be sustained over a prolonged period it would be bound to have an impact on bilateral trade turnover which amounted to about $14 billion in the last yearâ€.

The SGA believes that one likely casualty of a breakdown in Turkish-French relations will be those French firms which are competing to secure lucrative defense contracts in Turkey. By next summer officials in Ankara will have probably decided on a $4 billion contract to provide Turkey with long-range missile and air-defense systems.

â€œTurkeyâ€™s accession process to the EU would become even more difficult. Possible future NATO engagement in Syria would become increasingly problematic given that Turkey would be bound to play a key role in any military operation. The possibility of any rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia would be effectively buriedâ€, says the report.

In SGAâ€™s opinion, Turkish decision-makers will also now be more concerned that the influential Armenian Diaspora in the US will intensify their efforts to secure passage of legislation in Congress which would make 24 April a day to commemorate officially the â€œArmenian genocideâ€.

â€œGiven the breakdown in relations between Turkey and Israel, the Israeli lobby can no longer be relied upon to block such legislation. In an attempt to counter the arguments of the Armenian Diaspora, Turkish officials would once again impress upon President Obama the strategic significance of Turkey for the USâ€, notes the authors, adding, however, because of the extent of the dependence of Turkey on US arms procurements, it is difficult to envision Ankara freezing out Washington from future defense contracts in the event that the US officially recognizes the â€œArmenian genocideâ€.