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US analyst: â€œIf the last twenty three years tell us anything, it is that Western states and institutions do not have sufficient leverage over Armenia and Azerbaijan to produce peaceâ€

20 December 2011 08:28 (UTC +04:00)

However, he says, prospects for further Russia-US cooperation in security are limited.
â€œThe trend appears to be in the other direction, not least because of the disagreements over missile defense, and also Iranâ€, he told to APAâ€™s correspondent.

Prof. MacFarlane says the Western approach to the post-Soviet countries has been to recognize the full sovereignty and independence of these countries in international affairs. The Russians seem to have a different view, where the sovereignty of the other republics is not complete, and Russia has special rights and duties in the former Soviet space.

â€œThey are particularly sensitive to other regional states "leaning to the West", and to western efforts to expand security relations in the regionâ€, he added.

Speaking about the South Caucasusâ€™ future, the analyst mentioned that ten years from now, the cooperation of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia with Euro-Atlantic institutions will be deeper, and that is probably a good thing for the region. â€œHowever, the three states will remain a long way away from full integrationâ€.

As for the prospects of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Prof. MacFarla says, â€œProspects continue to be poor. The West can mediate, and they can encourage. But the necessary decisions are local onesâ€.

â€œIf the last twenty three years tell us anything, it is that Western states and institutions do not have sufficient leverage over Armenia and Azerbaijan to produce peace. Nor does Russiaâ€, he underlined.