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US analyst: â€œThe US position in 2012 will likely be a continuation of the past decade: maintain pressure to prevent an outbreak of fighting, support the â€˜peace processâ€™, but ultimately not expend a level of diplomatic and/or geopolitical capital to actually ensure a comprehensive peace agreementâ€- INTERVIEW

14 December 2011 09:39 (UTC +04:00)

Washington. Isabel Levine â€“ APA. APA US correspondentâ€™s interview with Thomas Ambrosio, US analyst on South Caucasus issues, an Associate Professor of political science at the North Dakota State University

- How would you characterize the US-Azerbaijan relations during the year Ambassador Matthew Bryza was in Baku? Did both countries manage to overcome the problems that they faced previously?

- I would characterize this as the beginning of a â€˜rebuilding processâ€™ in which the initial, anti-Azerbaijani policy pursued by the Obama administration â€“ pursued seemingly out of a narrow-minded desire to reverse the good relationship which existed between the two countries during the Bush administration, as part of a larger desire to portray itself as the un-Bush administration â€“ has given way to the realization that Azerbaijan is an important ally of the United States in a strategically important location. While I do not believe that US-Azerbaijani relations will be restored to the Bush-era level, there is a new, more positive â€˜normalâ€™ in the relationship between Washington and Baku.

- Did the fact that the Senate still didnâ€™t discuss ambassadorâ€™s nomination push the bilateral relations back?

- No. There are domestic political reasons for this which not seriously affect US-Azerbaijani relations. Ultimately, whoever the ambassador is will simply carry out the policies of the President and his national security team. The perceptions and policies of the administration are far more important than the dynamics within the US Senate.

- Can we say the 2011 was unsuccessful in terms of Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations? How do you see the USâ€™ position regarding that in 2012?

- If we define â€˜successâ€™ in terms of a comprehensive diplomatic agreement on the future of Nagorno-Karabakh, then yes, it was unsuccessful. However, I do not believe that such an outcome is likely and should definitely not be the definition of success. Was there large-scale fighting? No. That is one way to measure success â€“ and, from the perspective of the Minsk Group, this is probably good enough. From the perspective of the Armenians (both in Armenia-proper and Nagorno-Karabakh), another year passed with Nagorno-Karabakh maintaining its de facto independence â€“ that is how they would define success. Baku would see it as a failure: one-seventh of its territory is still outside of its de facto sovereignty and some one million displaced persons cannot return home.
The US position in 2012 will likely be a continuation of the past decade: maintain pressure to prevent an outbreak of fighting, support the â€˜peace processâ€™, but ultimately not expend a level of diplomatic and/or geopolitical capital to actually ensure a comprehensive peace agreement. Continuity, not change, is the most likely outcome in 2012.

- Seems like the frozen conflictsâ€™ influence not only the regional security, but even the US foreign and internal policy. For example, because of the Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict, President Obamaâ€™s nominee to US Ambassador post in Azerbaijan faces with Armenian Diasporaâ€™s criticism in the Congress. How do you see this scene in the next election year? Can the Administration overcome controversial topics such as "Armenian genocide", Ambassadorsâ€™ appointments to Baku and Yerevan, etc, in the next election year?

- Of course, with the election approaching, President Obama will be interested in counting votes â€“ especially from key states which have a large Armenian population, such as New York, New Jersey, and California. It is unlikely that he will do anything to aggravate any particular constituency, such as the Armenian-Americans. I do not see how these issues can be overcome next year.