Economic growth across the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Georgia is expected to moderate in 2026, the UN said in its report, APA-Economics reports.
Regional GDP, which grew by 2.4 per cent in 2025, is projected to expand by 2.1 per cent in 2026. Alongside the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Middle East conflict has introduced further uncertainty to the region, including by disrupting trade logistics.
Preliminary data indicate that the Russian Federation’s economy contracted in the first quarter of 2026, with full-year growth projected at 1.0 per cent. Stronger export earnings from hydrocarbons, fertilizers, and agricultural products are expected to be partially offset by structural constraints, including labour shortages, sluggish productivity growth, and subdued non-military investment.
In Ukraine, the economy is expected to expand by 1.7 per cent in 2026, constrained by heavy damage to power generation and infrastructure. International financial assistance remains crucial, with post-conflict reconstruction cost estimates revised upwards to $588 billion.
Most countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia are projected to expand above the regional average, supported by exports and domestic growth drivers, including residential and infrastructure investment. However, for smaller energy-importing countries, higher costs will add to inflation, constrain private consumption, and exacerbate pressures on fiscal and current account balances, with limited policy space to respond.
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