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Fitch Ratings agency publicizes main forecasts on Azerbaijan

15 March 2013 08:48 (UTC +04:00)

According to APA-Economics, Fitch Ratings’ Director on Developing European Countries Charles Seville stated that positive factors causing Azerbaijan’s rating to be at “BBB -” must firstly include strong financial position.

Thus, Azerbaijan’s total stocks less public debt is equal to 59% of GDP and this is higher level among the “BBB-” rated countries. Moreover, it was noted that the country has 14 bln barrels of oil reserves (38-year production) and 2.2 trillion cm of gas reserves.

At the same time, weak factors includes falling of 96% of export to share of oil, geopolitical risks and weak financial sector, unknown future after ending of oil production.

Seville also publicized forecasts on volume of assets of State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan in case of oil price is $60, $80, $100$ and $120$ a barrel. Thus, according to best scenario ($120 a barrel), the assets will make AZN 47-48 bln in 2018, the worst scenario ($60 a barrel) – AZN 10 bln.

Besides, he also said his forecasts on GDP. Thus, GDP growth will be 3% in 2013, 5% - in 2014, including non-oil GDP – appropriately 8% and 6-7%. At the same time, Fitch specialists forecast that growth rate of budget expenses will be reduced in 2013-2014.