Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are the countries that benefit the most in the region amid upward revisions of global energy price forecasts, APA-Economics reports.
This was stated in an analysis by ING Group, the largest financial group in the Netherlands.
It was noted that the new price scenario creates conditions for a significant improvement in Azerbaijan’s macroeconomic indicators. Thus, in 2026, the country’s current account surplus is projected to reach 8–9% of GDP, while a budget surplus of 4.0–4.5% is expected.
Analysts believe that this dynamic is linked to the strengthening of Azerbaijan’s position as an energy exporter, and high oil prices ensure additional foreign currency inflows into the country.
At the same time, it is noted that Kazakhstan, another energy exporter in the region, will also benefit positively, although this effect may be limited by dividend outflows and a decline in revenues of the sovereign fund.
In addition, the report emphasizes that the increase in global commodity prices also strengthens inflation risks, which requires central banks to pursue more cautious monetary policies.
Note that amid rising global energy prices, the strengthening of Azerbaijan’s external balance and fiscal position is considered one of the main expectations in the country’s economy.
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