International financial group ING forecasts that Azerbaijan will improve its external and fiscal indicators this year by benefiting from high oil prices, APA-Economics reports.
Amid tensions in the Middle East and ongoing risks around the Strait of Hormuz, ING has raised its oil price forecast for 2026 to 93 US dollars per barrel. Azerbaijan is mentioned among the countries that benefit the most from this situation.
According to ING’s assessment, under the new oil scenario, Azerbaijan’s current account surplus could reach 9-10% of GDP this year. At the same time, the consolidated budget surplus is expected to rise to 4% of GDP.
The report notes that although Azerbaijan is exposed to imported inflation risks, domestic inflationary pressures remain weaker compared to other CIS countries. The main reason for this is the low level of economic growth.
ING recalls that Azerbaijan’s gross domestic product decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. The institution expects economic growth to remain at a low single-digit level throughout the year.
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