The International Monetary Fund (IMF) commented on its expectations regarding economic growth in Azerbaijan according to the report "Global economy growth prospects", APA-Economics reports.
The factors the IMF primarily consider when forecasting economic growth in Azerbaijan are the projections based on the expected production of the oil and gas sectors and expected output from the non-oil sectors, which in turn would be affected by several factors such as the continued post-pandemic recovery of contact-intensive sectors, economic prospects of trading partners, public and private sector investment plans, and, more broadly, structural reforms to diversify the economy away from the hydrocarbon sector.
The growth forecast revision is mainly driven by the larger-than-expected contraction in oil production observed in the first 8 months of 2023.
Official estimates are provided by the Ministry of Economy, who would be in a better position to explain the forecast regarding what factors contribute to the more conservative economic growth forecast of 1.9% by the Azerbaijani government.
The IMF projects that nonoil GDP will grow by 4.2 percent in 2023, and then by about 3.5 percent in the medium term.