Fitch Solutions forecasts that the average annual price of Brent crude will stand at $83 per barrel this year and fall to $71 per barrel in 2027, according to the company’s commodities market report obtained by APA-Economics.
The company expects the average price of WTI crude to be $79 per barrel in 2026 and $68 in 2027, while the OPEC oil basket is projected at $87 and $70 per barrel, respectively.
Fitch Solutions noted that Brent prices have recently come under significant pressure amid reports of a possible agreement between Iran and Oman on the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. On August 5, Brent futures closed at $79.4 per barrel, falling 12.5% over the course of a week. Dated Brent declined by 8.4% to $83.5 per barrel.
Under the company’s baseline scenario, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could resume during the third quarter of 2026 at the initial stage. However, Fitch Solutions emphasized that risks to the oil market remain extremely high and that a number of factors could still hinder the implementation of a potential agreement.
The report said the pace of a full restoration of oil shipments in the region will depend on several factors. These include possible delays in implementing the agreement, mine-clearing operations, the reaction of shipowners, freight companies, operators and insurers, as well as Houthi activity in the Red Sea. The company therefore expects oil prices to remain highly volatile in the coming weeks and months.
Fitch Solutions also noted that despite the decline in crude oil prices, conditions in the oil products market remain tight. According to the report, Asian refineries significantly reduced production following the US-Iran war, weakening the supply of refined products. As demand did not decline to the same extent, inventories fell.
In addition, increased attacks on Russian oil refining infrastructure have put further pressure on market supply. Moscow has extended restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports until January 2027. As a result, the price spread between low-sulfur gasoil and Brent has widened to around $80 per barrel, compared with approximately $20 per barrel in the same period last year.
Fitch Solutions believes these factors are increasing price risks in the oil market.
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