The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be at the level of $87 per barrel in 2026, APA-Economics reports.
This was stated in the June forecast of the international rating agency Fitch Ratings.
The agency raised its forecast for the average Brent oil price in 2026 by $17, or 24.3%, from $70 to $87 per barrel. The main reason for the revision was cited as the longer-than-expected closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Fitch noted that although the ceasefire announced after the US-Iran war remains in force, the Strait of Hormuz has already been closed for 14 weeks. Under the agency’s new baseline scenario, the reopening of the strait will begin in July, while a broader restoration of maritime transportation will take place in August. This means that the strait will remain closed for approximately five months in total.
According to the report, amid disruptions to oil exports from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Brent crude averaged $103 per barrel in April and May.
At the same time, Fitch expects market conditions to normalize in the second half of the year. The agency believes that oil production in the Gulf countries will recover rapidly, as no serious damage was inflicted on oil infrastructure, while OPEC will operate at maximum capacity to compensate for lost volumes.
According to Fitch’s forecast, oil prices will fall back to the level of $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. Nevertheless, the overall annual average will stand at $87 per barrel.
Follow us on Telegram
t.me/apanewsaz
Follow us on Instagram
Follow us on TikTok
Follow us on Facebook
Follow us on X
