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US economy has started to recover

12 August 2009 12:38 (UTC +04:00)

Baku. Vahab Rzayev â€“ APA-Economics. Recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s has begun as President Barack Obamaâ€™s fiscal stimulus -- derided as insufficient and budget-busting months ago -- takes effect, a survey of economists indicated, Bloomberg reported.

The economy will expand 2 percent or more in four straight quarters through June, the first such streak in more than four years, according to the median of 53 forecasts in the monthly Bloomberg News survey. Analysts lifted their estimate for the third quarter by 1.2 percentage points compared with July, the biggest such boost in surveys dating from May 2003.

â€œWeâ€™ve averted the worst, and there are clear signs the stimulus is working,â€ said Kenneth Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board in New York.

The new projections, following better-than-anticipated reports on manufacturing, employment and home construction, echo gains in investor confidence that have propelled the Standard & Poorâ€™s 500 Stock Index to its high for the year. A rebound may help cushion declines in Obamaâ€™s approval ratings, political analysts said.

â€œThe fact that people for the first time in over a year are starting to look at some glimmers of hope plays to the prospect of some strength in the stimulus,â€ said Susan Molinari, a Republican strategist in Washington who advised Rudy Giuliani during his presidential nomination campaign in 2008.
The presidentâ€™s approval rating is falling on concern over rising joblessness and the growing budget deficit, a Quinnipiac University poll showed last week.
Half of the registered voters surveyed from July 27 to Aug. 3 by Quinnipiac said they approve of the job Obama is doing, compared with 42 percent who disapprove. Thatâ€™s down from 57 percent approval and 33 percent disapproval in a late June poll.
Americans are hurting as employers continue to cut jobs, albeit at a slower pace. The unemployment rate will average 9.8 percent in 2010, according to the Bloomberg survey taken from Aug. 5 to Aug. 11.