The International Monetary Fund estimates the external financing Ukraine needs to carry out its 2027 state budget, the sources of which are not yet confirmed, at $30 billion to $35 billion, and that money will be found if the Ukrainian side fulfills its part of the commitments, Vladyslav Rashkovan, Ukraine's deputy executive director at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine on Oct. 23, APA reports.
"The money will be there if we keep working the way we have worked over the last few months," he said.
Rashkovan recalled that next year's budget includes a need for nonmilitary financing of $52.5 billion, of which $20 billion has already been found, or at least assurances have been given for it within existing support instruments. So the sum named by Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko that needs additional confirmation is $32.6 billion.
"The IMF assesses the situation similarly. We were in Kyiv in late August and early September, discussed this with the minister and understand this figure," Ukraine's representative at the fund said. “When the IMF comes in November on a mission ahead of the December review, we will most likely already see, from the August, September, and possibly October data, the impact of the escalation of the war on macroeconomic indicators. It may be significant.”
He explained that this is why the IMF is more cautious in assessing next year's need for external budget financing, at $30 billion to $35 billion, although $32.6 billion falls within that range.
As for this year, Rashkovan said the IMF believes funds for this year's budget spending have been found, because international partners gave the necessary assurances. But a significant part of the financing is planned for the fourth quarter and tied to meeting conditions under various programs, whereas last year it came without additional conditions through the ERA mechanism, built on the use of revenues from frozen Russian assets.
"This year, to get money, you have to meet conditions," Rashkovan added. “That is exactly why there was a delay: of the almost $30 billion that remained until the end of the year, Ukraine was supposed to receive up to $10 billion earlier.”
He thanked parliament for important votes last week that unblocked financing, and expressed the view that with the arrival of Prime Minister Sergiy Koretskyi, work inside the government and interaction with parliament on financing have become much more active.
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