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New Transnistria precedent â€“ ANALYTICS

New Transnistria precedent <font color=red>â€“ ANALYTICS</font>

29 May 2008 10:08 (UTC +04:00)

Bucharest. Dr. Fakhri Karimli-APA. All the conflicts inherited from the former USSR are in the area of GUAM member states: Abkhazia, South Ossetia (Georgia), Nagorno Karabakh (Azerbaijan) and Transdnestria (Moldova). They are also called â€œfrozen conflictsâ€. But it seems if the developments go on like this, we will soon witness â€œmeltingâ€ of the latter.

Chairman of Moldovaâ€™s parliament Marian Lupu met with his counterpart from â€œTransnistria Republic of Moldovaâ€ Yevgeny Shevchuk in Brussels on May 14. They decided to restore the discussions on Transnistrian conflict as soon as possible. They discussed free travel of people along both banks of the Dniester and mutual confidence-building measures. The meeting on this level was last held seven years ago. Shevchukâ€™s visit to Brussels is also interesting from other aspect, he is the first separatist leader to enter the area of EU member states, after Moldova asked the European Union to lift the travel ban off the Transnistria leaders.

The travel ban was lifted after the meeting between the President of Moldova Vladimir Voronin Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov in Bendery (Tighina) on April 14. In exchange for this, Igor Smirnov allowed travel of Moldovan official in the separatist republic. They decided to continue these contacts and dialogue on the level of commissions. The last meeting on this level was held in August, 2001,later the situation became tense after Moldova imposed political and economic blockade on Transnistria with the help of Ukraine and the process of negotiations in the format 5+2 (USA< Russia, Ukraine, European Union, OSCE + Moldova) was suspended. Voronin was even not allowed to attend the burial of his mother, who had been from Transnistria.

â€œToday Moldova is close to the peaceful solution of the Transnistrian conflict whenever it wasâ€, said President Vladimir Voronin at the XV meeting of Central European leaders in Ohrid, Macedonia on May 6. â€œMy country is looking forward for the sustainable solution of this conflict only within the â€œ5+2â€ format and it can be an example of peaceful solution of frozen conflict within the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countryâ€. Moldovan foreign minister Andrei Stratan shared the presidentâ€™s optimism. â€œMoldova believes in the solution of Transnistrian conflict by the end of the yearâ€. It is clear that EU leads the peace process formally and the initiative comes from Russia. Russia is playing this role not for the first time. Russian Kozak plan, promoted by the Russian envoy Dmitriy Kozak was rejected by the Moldovan president just before its signing in 2003 and even Russian president Vladimir Putin returned home from the airport. Afterwards Russian-Moldovan relations worsened sharply and Russia banned import of Moldovan wines. Details of current peace plan are not clear as Kozak plan, but it is clear that essence in both documents was not changed. The question is that Moldovan refusal of NATO integration and GUAM membership and Russian guarantee for the Moldovan territorial integrity instead of presence of Russian troops in Transnistrian region. It means that Moldova receives back the Transnistrian region and enters to the Russian political orbit.

In a word, Russia began to implement new tactic on the frozen conflicts after the Kosovo experience. Moscow is planning to control not the separatist region, but entire country. It is not new tactic in fact. When Moscow and Kiev disputed over the Black Sea fleet after USSR collapse, Russia curbed separatist mood of local Russian-speaking population and preferred to make Ukraine its political hostage instead it. It resulted with the Crimean autonomous status and turning of Sevastopol, the base of Black Sea fleet, into the special territorial-administrative unit. Now Russia tries to get second Serbia in the Eastern Europe at Moldovaâ€™s cost.

Transnistrian conflict was always evaluated as more prospective than other conflicts, because it has no ethnic character and there are no sharp confrontation between the sides and ethnic cleansing and the conflict resulted with killing of few number of peoples (1000 people). Transnistrian is populated with the relative majority of Moldavians. Transnistrian cars and residents are frequently seen in the Chisinau, who travel to Europe with Moldovan passports. There is experience of peaceful solution of Gagauz conflict in 1995, which resulted with the autonomous status of Gagauzian Republic. Moldova has been the agrarian country since the Soviet period and Transnistria is a decisive region for the country because more than half of industrial capacity of the country was located in this region as a result of intentional policy of USSR. Uniting with Moldova opens for Transnistria prospects of EU integration from the enclave. EU leaders repeated for many times that EU would sponsor unification process in Moldova.

Moldova faced difficult choice, though it can be a new precedent. Igor Smirnov, current President of Transnistria has presented draft agreement on cooperation and friendship between Moldova and Transnistria Moldavian Republic during the meeting in Bendery. The agreement covers equal status of the two sides, their bilateral sovereignty and territorial integrity, non-interference in domestic affairs. The conflict can be solved within the framework of international legal norms and political-economical realities. Moldova should refuse inheritance over Transnistria. Moldova and Transnistria can become federative state basing on horizontal relations. Separatist leaders should take important posts in central authorities, Moldova should declare its neutralism, pay $1.5 billion-debt of Transdniestr to Gazprom and parties and people of separatist region should participate in parliamentarian elections in 2009.
Current developments have reached to decisive stage: establishment of new Transnistria precedent or repetition of old Kozak experience will depend on directions of developments.