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New geopolitical situation in the Caucasus: towards where? - ANALYSIS

New geopolitical situation in the Caucasus: towards where?<font color=red> - ANALYSIS</font>

20 May 2008 09:39 (UTC +04:00)

In fact the elections shouldnâ€™t be viewed as a reason of the developments because it is only the part of world and regional processes. Today, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and situation in whole South Caucasus should be evaluated as an impact of new system of international relations, created after Kosovoâ€™s declaration of independence in February, on the region. In other words, new view of super powers and organizations on the traditional confrontation between the principles of territorial integrity of the countries and self-determination right of peoples should be considered as an accelerator of the processes. Undoubtedly local conditions, which played decisive role in the existing situation and domestic terms, shouldnâ€™t be out of attention:

- Armenian self-isolation policy for defending of status-quo;
- Effect of Azerbaijanâ€™s huge oil incomes;
- Intensified dissatisfaction of public community in Armenia against the Nagorno Karabakh clan;
- Azerbaijanâ€™s concern over Kosovo experience to be as a precedent;

Russia is not reconciled with the Kosovoâ€™s independence and threatens to repeat the same scenario in the Caucasus. Last developments, related to Russian citizens of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, are the part of this plan. Concerning over this, the West states that Kosovo is not precedent and tries to strengthen its position in the region considering such strategic features of the region as a transit and energy security. Other conditioned aspect it the threatening of territorial integrity of ally Georgia, the scene of â€œrose revolutionâ€. The West gave written promises to Georgia in Bucharest summit to welcome it in NATO and the country is out of the orbit of Russian influence, which changes the balance of forces in the Caucasus.

Azerbaijanâ€™s recent tactics â€œthe best defense is an attackâ€ also means the using of new situation in its favor. A weak domestic stability in Armenia is also in favor of our country. It will be credulity to think that adoption of UN resolution on situation in the occupied lands of Azerbaijan and post-election unrests in Armenia coincided only. Baku tries to create legal basis for a new situation not to threaten its vital interests. The UN resolution and 43rd article of NATO Bucharest declaration have been adopted with this goal. In the first case Azerbaijan won the UN support and in the second case it achieved to neutralize two of the three superpowers, which voted against the UN resolution and to reach NATO guarantee for its territorial integrity.
Certainly, there is no need to exaggerate an importance of resolution of UN General Assembly or resolution of NATO. Adoption of such decisions and documents is positive. The new power is a continuation of previous one and therefore Armenia will not change its policy on Nagorno Karabakh. Domestic tensity, separation of church, Diaspora and society give broad political chance for Azerbaijan. Such situation occurred during terrorist act in Armenian parliament in 1999. Matthew Bryza, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs noted in Helsinki Commission that Armenia could be deprived from Millennium Challenge Cooperation. There is not an analogue of this situation in Armenia-US relations.

Baku has left Armenia behind within the framework of Prague process. Using adopted documents, Azerbaijan can influence on the negotiation process. Here includes the joint usage of Lachin corridor and fate of Kalbajar, as well as status of Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Province. Azerbaijan will use negotiations on UN level and inactivity of OSCE MG as a way of pressure. Realization of Baku-Tbilisiâ€“Akhalkalakiâ€“Kars railway will be last element of Armenian blockade and Yerevan bewares of increase of Azerbaijani military budget and war mood. After Kosovo experiment, unilateral recognition of Nagorno Karabakh will weaken the position of Yerevan. Former Spokesman for Armenian foreign ministry Vladimir Karapetian noted that Azerbaijan could use natural gas as a trump card in Russia-Azerbaijan relations, as well as Iran issue in US-Azerbaijan relations and exaggerate its role in European energy security.
â€œWe face common useless condition linking with our weakness, new regional status of Azerbaijan. Todayâ€™s Azerbaijan differs from Azerbaijan participated in negotiations process late in last centuryâ€, he said.