A new wave of decline has been observed in the cryptocurrency market since the beginning of February this year. Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, has lost value in recent months, bringing discussions of a “bear market” back to the agenda.
Bitcoin’s price history shows that such downturns are not new for the market. In 2017, BTC rose to $19,666, but a year later it had fallen to $3,122. The next major wave was observed in 2021–2022. After climbing to $69,000, Bitcoin declined to $15,479.
Most recently, in October 2025, Bitcoin reached a record high of around $120,000–122,000. However, by February 2026, it had lost approximately half of its value and is trading at around $66,000–67,000.
This situation brings the key question in the market back into focus: how long will the “bear phase” in Bitcoin last, and what awaits the market in the coming months?
What is happening in the crypto market?
Analysts at the U.S.-based CME Group exchange note that after the peak formed in the summer–autumn of 2025, Bitcoin has declined by approximately 25–30%, while the drop in altcoins has been even deeper. It is emphasized that prices in the crypto market are still largely tied to Bitcoin’s performance, and this undertow is pulling altcoins downward as well.
What does a “bear market” mean?
In the cryptocurrency market, such periods of decline are usually referred to as a “bear market.” This is a phase in which prices move downward for an extended period. Bear markets are a natural part of the crypto cycle and typically occur after major waves of growth.
Analysts at CoinDCX recall that in Bitcoin’s history, prices fell by 74% in 2018 and by more than 70% in 2022. In this context, the current decline is not unusual for the market.
Why are cryptocurrencies declining?
Analysts state that the current downturn in the cryptocurrency market is not merely a technical correction. The process is driven by both global financial conditions and changing investor psychology.
It is noted that although cryptocurrencies have been presented in recent years as “alternative financial assets,” in practice, they still fall into the category of risky assets. For this reason, monetary tightening in the United States has a direct impact on the crypto market.
Analysts at CME Group point out that investors have shifted into a “risk-off” mode in the market. In other words, they are exiting high-risk assets and moving toward more stable instruments.
Simply put, when interest rates are high, the dollar becomes more attractive. Investors avoid risk, sell crypto assets, and as a result, increased supply in the market leads to falling prices.
Why is the “digital gold” thesis being questioned again?
Crypto supporters have long presented Bitcoin as “digital gold,” claiming that it would serve as a safe haven during times of crisis. However, a different picture has emerged in recent months in the market: as geopolitical risks increase, investors are giving preference to gold over Bitcoin.
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone states that the “bubble is bursting” in the crypto market and that investor narratives are changing. According to McGlone, amid Bitcoin’s decline, investors are turning more rapidly to traditional safe assets such as gold and silver.
Why does Bitcoin’s “undertow” hit altcoins harder?
According to a study by CME Group, altcoins often fall under the gravitational pull of Bitcoin. When Bitcoin declines, other assets in the market tend to drop even more sharply.
As Bitcoin is the locomotive of the market, its depreciation prompts investors to exit altcoins more quickly, deepening the downturn.
How long can a “bear market” last? What does history say?
An analysis by CoinDCX notes that bear cycles in the crypto market are not limited to just a few months and can sometimes last more than a year.
For example, in 2014, the hacking of the Mt. Gox exchange triggered a sharp market decline. In 2018, fears of an ICO bubble pushed Bitcoin down by 74%. In 2022, the FTX scandal severely undermined market confidence. Nevertheless, each time Bitcoin managed to recover within roughly a year and a half.
What lies ahead for the market? – Two main scenarios
Analysts outline two main possible directions for the market’s future.
Under the first scenario, the “crypto winter” could be prolonged. Some experts believe the downturn is not yet over and that Bitcoin may test lower levels. This view aligns with warnings from Bloomberg Intelligence’s Senior Commodity and Crypto Strategist Mike McGlone.
According to McGlone, Bitcoin’s price could decline further, potentially falling to $10,000.
Under the second scenario, the market may enter a stabilization phase. Some analysts argue that Bitcoin is moving into a consolidation stage around the $60,000 level. If the market stabilizes at these levels, a gradual transition to a new upward phase may become possible.
How long will the Bitcoin bear “sleep”?
According to analysts, the current downturn in the cryptocurrency market has been shaped by a combination of factors: expectations of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, a global risk-off wave, the weakening of Bitcoin’s safe-haven role, deeper sell-offs in the altcoin market, bear market psychology, and investor fear.
History shows that bear markets in Bitcoin can be severe and prolonged. At the same time, previous downturns have eventually been followed by recovery.
At this stage, the key question remains open: is this decline the beginning of a new “crypto winter,” or merely the final correction before the next upward cycle?
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