Oil production in the Middle East will increase but will not return to pre-conflict levels until the second quarter of 2027. This follows from a report by the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), APA reports.
"Our short-term forecast for September 2026 projects Middle East oil production to increase in the coming months due to a gradual increase in exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the use of alternative routes out of the region. However, we assume that some restrictions on Middle East oil exports will remain in place until the end of the year, keeping regional oil production below pre-conflict averages until the second quarter of 2027," the document states.
According to the agency's assessment, flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb remain limited and unstable, and oil production volumes in the region have declined over the past month. They estimate that locked-in oil production in Kuwait, the UAE, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia amounted to 6.7 million bpd in August, compared to 5 million bpd in July. The US Department of Energy expects locked-in production in the region to reach 6.23 million bpd in the third quarter, 5.66 million bpd in the fourth quarter, and 2.72 million bpd in the first quarter of 2027.
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