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Dr. George Friedman : The critical issue for Azerbaijan is Nagorno-Karabakh - INTERVIEW

Dr. George Friedman : The critical issue for Azerbaijan is Nagorno-Karabakh - <font color=red>INTERVIEW</font>

02 July 2010 04:53 (UTC +04:00)

-Q. What do you think should be expected from the US top officialâ€™s visit to the country?

-A. I would reverse this question to asking what Azerbaijan will want to achieve at this meeting. Following on Bob Gatesâ€™ visit, the U.S. has now sent its top two foreign policy figures to Azerbaijan . The United States needs the logistical support of Azerbaijan in Afghanistan , involvement in Azerbaijan â€™s oil sector and the geographically sensitive location of the country, between Russia and Iran . Azerbaijan needs American support to guarantee its independence in this dangerous area. The future is always unknown. So there is mutual interest between these two countries. The critical issue for Azerbaijan is Nagorno-Karabakh. This is not a crucial issue for the United States . In its broader Caucasus strategy, the United States wants to maintain ties with Armenia and Azerbaijan without a crisis over this region. Therefore, the interesting question is the degree to which Azerbaijan is now going to test America on this issue. I think that given the sequence of the meeting, Clinton is prepared to try to revive discussions over the region, but not to move these talks to the crisis stage. For that, she will have to encounter a willingness of Azerbaijan to put its relationship with the U.S. at risk over Nagorno-Karabakh. So Clinton will be there to calm this issue. The interesting question is whether Azerbaijan will allow this to happen. If I were at the meeting, I would be far more interested in the Azerbaijani position.

-Q. Does it show that tensions in US-Azerbaijani relationship are over?

-A. Tensions between states are never over. They cycle up and down and new issues are introduced. However, the increased dependence of the United States on Azerbaijan over Afghanistan now gives Azerbaijan a lever to use in their talks with the Americans. I would argue that tensions between countries are not always bad as they provide the opportunity for moving the relationship forward. In this case, there are real issues between the two countries that need to be clarified, and tensions cannot subside until these issues are dealt with. For the United States , the best thing would be that tensions subside with Azerbaijan reducing interest in issues like Nagorno-Karabakh or postponing pressure over them. So the status of tension really depends on whether Azerbaijan is prepared to postpone focus on this issue at this time. This would reduce tension, but of course that may not be in the Azeri national interest. But tensions donâ€™t concern me. They are what international relations are about.

-Q. What kind of questions does Washington have for Baku ?

-A. Washington wants to understand Baku â€™s relationship with the major countries in the region. The latter is particularly important. Baku deals with three countries that are of interest to the United States -- Iran , Russia and Turkey . I think the United States will particularly want to understand Baku â€™s relationship with Ankara . Turkey â€™s foreign policy is shifting and the U.S. will want to get Azerbaijan â€™s view of where it is going and Baku â€™s response. Second, with Kyrgyzstan evolving as it is, Washington will want to discuss Baku â€™s view of Central Asia . And finally, and perhaps most importantly, given the U.S. interest in finding a basis for dialog with Iran , and Azerbaijan â€™s unique position in relation to Iran , the U.S. will want to take a sounding of Baku â€™s views of what is happening in Tehran and possibilities for dialog. Note that these are the issues that the U.S. will want to focus on. The issue with Armenia will be on the list only if Azerbaijan puts it there. It is a subject Clinton will want to skip over quickly if she can.