The sharp drop in the level of the Caspian Sea has understandably caused serious concern in Kazakhstan, as it has around the world. The sea level dropping to -29.21 meters not only complicates the operations of Kazakhstan’s Aktau and Kuryk ports but also creates large-scale environmental, economic, and social risks for all Caspian littoral states, including Azerbaijan. As a way out of the situation, Kazakhstan has proposed several measures. One of these involves the Volga River, which is the main source feeding the Caspian Sea. Kazakhstan has raised the issue of demanding a guarantee from Russia for a minimum flow of water from the Volga. However, Russia does not consider the river to be a transboundary watercourse and therefore does not want to take on any additional obligations.
The Caspian Sea is in danger
According to information from the Kazakh side, the Caspian Sea has already dropped to a historic low of -29.21 meters, and this figure has been consistently worsening since 2006. As a result, not only have Kazakhstan’s Aktau and Kuryk ports faced operational difficulties, but the region's ecological stability is also increasingly being undermined. In such a situation, Azerbaijan and other Caspian littoral states should not view this as Kazakhstan’s internal problem but rather as a regional crisis.
The drop in the Caspian Sea level has caused the water surface area to shrink by 31,000 square kilometers. This has led to a 45–81% reduction in the breeding and habitat areas of critical species such as the Caspian seal, sturgeon, and other vital components of biodiversity. This threat is very real for Azerbaijan as well—its fishing industry and marine ecology are under the same risk.
Furthermore, the decreased flow of the Volga River into the Caspian—only 207 km³ in 2023—could also cause economic and logistical challenges for Azerbaijan. If the sea level drops by another 5 meters, some ports may become practically non-functional. Azerbaijan aims to become a regional transit hub through its Baku International Sea Trade Port and other maritime infrastructure, but the shallowing of the Caspian puts this strategy at risk.
In this context, it is important for Azerbaijan to act jointly with Kazakhstan, to initiate multilateral mechanisms concerning the Volga River, and to play an active diplomatic role in formats that will involve Russia in the negotiations.
The share of the Volga River in feeding the Caspian Sea
In an interview with APA, Adylbek Kozybakov — a member of the Public Council under Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, and also the head of the environmental NGO “ECOJER” — stated that excessive use of water from the Volga River has led to the shallowing of the Caspian Sea and the disruption of ecological balance, becoming a serious regional problem requiring the joint cooperation of all five Caspian littoral states.
He stated: "The Volga River accounts for 80% of the water flowing into the Caspian Sea, which is why it is considered the main source of the Caspian. Without this 'lifeline,' the stability of the Caspian ecosystem is called into question. Unfortunately, in recent years, Russia’s excessive use of water from the Volga has seriously disrupted this balance. Compared to previous periods, the reduction in water flow has led to the shallowing of the Caspian, turning it into a major ecological and economic issue for the region. This is not just an environmental problem—it also carries geopolitical significance. Therefore, this issue must be addressed not by a single country, but through the joint efforts of all five Caspian littoral states—Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran. Water management and the region’s ecological stability require regional cooperation. The most suitable international mechanism for this is the Tehran Convention, which has been in place for over 20 years. However, its potential has not yet been fully utilized.”
Rovshan Abbasov, a member of the Public Council under Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources and an environmental expert, told APA that one of the main reasons for the drop in the Caspian Sea’s water level is the filling of large reservoirs on the Volga River, which has reduced the amount of water flowing into the sea: The Volga River plays a decisive role in shaping the water balance of the Caspian Sea. Approximately 80% of the river water flowing into the sea comes from the Volga. In recent years, due to growing water demand in Russia, climate change, increased evaporation from reservoirs, and the expansion of agricultural activity, the volume of water drawn from the Volga has increased. This has had a direct negative impact on the Caspian Sea’s water level. However, it is not accurate to attribute the issue solely to anthropogenic factors. The point is that changes in the Caspian Sea's level are long-term and cyclical in nature. Ultimately, the shifts in the sea’s level result from the combined influence of natural factors and human activity, meaning the issue requires a complex and integrated approach.”
Russia must recognize the scale of the threat
Addressing the question of how realistic it is to obtain a legal guarantee from Russia regarding a minimum water flow from the Volga River, the Kazakh ecologist regretfully noted that this seems unlikely at the current stage: "Russia considers the Volga a domestic water body and does not accept external interference concerning it. Kazakhstan alone cannot realistically influence Russia on this matter. Therefore, joint pressure and diplomatic efforts by the other four Caspian littoral states are essential. This can only be achieved through the full activation of the Tehran Convention and other international mechanisms. How can Kazakhstan influence Russia's water management policy without a bilateral agreement? In this case, the key role lies with the international community and multilateral diplomacy. Kazakhstani politicians and diplomats must demonstrate the highest level of professionalism and act in coordination with other countries. Because Russia will not change its stance based solely on Kazakhstan's wishes. In this regard, the participation of societies is also crucial. Not just states, but also the scientific community and civil society must respond to this challenge. It must be explained to them that the continued decline in Volga water flow could result in the drying up of the Caspian—leading to catastrophic consequences for the entire region. If the Caspian shares the fate of the Aral Sea, it will not only affect the five littoral states but disrupt the ecological balance of the entire planet. In this context, pollution is also of particular importance. Pollution in the Volga River directly affects the Caspian Sea. The Aktau Protocol on pollution under the Tehran Convention could serve as a legal framework for joint action in this field. Unified methodologies must be developed and approved to determine the maximum permissible concentration of pollutants. If this approach is adopted, legal sanctions could be applied against polluting countries—for instance, Russia."
In turn, Rovshan Abbasov believes that the shallowing of the Caspian Sea not only leads to ecological issues but also causes serious consequences in the economic, social, and logistical spheres, making regional cooperation among all Caspian littoral states an urgent necessity: “The shallowing of the Caspian Sea undoubtedly has a severe impact on all Caspian littoral states. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Russia, in particular, are significantly affected. Major difficulties have emerged in maritime navigation. Ships can no longer dock at ports in Makhachkala, Astrakhan, and Kazakhstan. In Kazakhstan, large areas of the sea have dried up, which negatively affects the country's climate, fishing industry, and tourism and recreation sectors. Overall, all coastal populations are suffering from this process. The decline in sea level also leads to reduced biodiversity in coastal ecosystems. This endangers the habitats of species living in the Caspian Sea and threatens some species with extinction. Furthermore, this process brings not only ecological consequences but also economic and social ones. The future development of transportation, energy, and fishing industries in the Caspian region faces serious obstacles. All of these challenges necessitate closer cooperation among regional countries and the search for common solutions.”
A blow to regional logistics
The shallowing of the Caspian Sea poses a serious threat to port infrastructure and international communication routes. The historic low water level complicates the operations of key ports such as Aktau, Kuryk, and Baku, leading to delays in cargo transportation and increased costs. Additionally, important logistics projects like the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) are at risk. The ecological imbalance in the Caspian Sea not only destabilizes the region but also threatens the stability of Europe-Asia trade connections. Therefore, the issue requires a global solution approach. In this regard, Kazakhstan has proposed the creation of a special working group aimed at securing a legal guarantee from Russia on minimum water flow from the Volga River, given the critical drop in the Caspian Sea level. Official Astana believes that this working group should not be limited to Kazakhstan and Russia but must also involve other Caspian littoral states—Azerbaijan, Iran, and Turkmenistan—in the process.
"The working group proposed by Kazakhstan can play an important role in solving the problem of the Caspian Sea’s shallowing. Kazakhstan’s initiative for a minimum water flow from the Volga River has received wide support domestically. This proposal is welcomed by experts, civil society, and public organizations. A global campaign called ‘Let’s Protect the Caspian Sea’ has also been launched within the country. Its founder, lawyer and environmentalist Vadim Ni, promotes the slogan ‘The Caspian is My Sea,’ aiming to raise awareness among every citizen about their responsibility. This approach frames the protection of the Caspian not just as an environmental issue but as a shared responsibility of all regional inhabitants. However, if this initiative remains confined within Kazakhstan, achieving practical results will be difficult. The Caspian Sea is a shared resource and responsibility of five countries. Therefore, it is essential to include Iran, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan in this working group. Such an expanded format will increase the legitimacy of regional representation and strengthen diplomatic pressure on Russia. Only through a joint and coordinated approach can Russia be encouraged to adopt a more responsible policy in managing its water resources. This is vital not only for the ecological stability of the Caspian but also for the economic security of the region and the sustainability of international transport and communication routes,” Kozybakov concludes.
Expert Rovshan Abbasov also believes that Azerbaijan, facing both ecological and economic consequences amid the rapid shallowing of the Caspian Sea, can only address this problem through coordinated efforts with Kazakhstan and constructive cooperation with Russia.
“Like Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan must take a firm stance on the issue of the Caspian’s shallowing. This process not only delivers an economic blow to our country but also rapidly destroys one of the world’s rare ecosystems — the Caspian Sea. We are already witnessing shoreline retreat in our coastal areas, and the fishing sector is suffering serious damage. The shallowing disrupts the Caspian ecosystem, leading to degradation in areas like Gizilaghaj, Samur, and Yalama. There are regressions in tourism, transportation, and fisheries. It is crucial for Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to take joint steps to combat this situation. The problem is linked to Russia’s water withdrawal from the Volga River and its negative impacts on other countries, with consequences that are long-term and can sometimes be measured in billions of dollars. Even calculating the damage to Azerbaijan’s tourism and fishing sectors yields significant figures. Therefore, Azerbaijan must act in coordination with Kazakhstan while also establishing dialogue and cooperation with Russia. The situation in Russia itself is dire — ships cannot dock at the Astrakhan port, areas are drying up, and economic sectors are suffering losses. This problem can only be resolved through joint efforts with Russia, and the time for concrete actions in this direction has long come,” he concluded.
Russia’s responsibility
The shallowing of the Caspian Sea has caused serious concern. Kazakhstan is taking initiatives to find solutions to this situation. Other Caspian littoral states, including Russia itself, should support this initiative. Nature and ecology are not the sole responsibility of any single country or individual. When an environmental disaster occurs, every country and every person shares responsibility. Therefore, Russia must act responsibly regarding the Volga River issue and take necessary steps together with Kazakhstan and other Caspian states to find solutions to the problem. Otherwise, it will be too late!
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