Tehran in front of choice: Cooperation with Azerbaijan or unnecessary tension?-ANALYSIS

Tehran in front of choice: Cooperation with Azerbaijan or unnecessary tension?-ANALYSIS
# 21 November 2022 19:03 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan’s restoring its territorial integrity as a result of the Second Karabakh War and increasing its geopolitical weight has been met with jealousy and concern by many. Azerbaijan’s putting an end to 30-year injustice with its first law during in total of 44 days, was a very unexpected, as well as undesired event for some. Those, who were unprepared for such a development of events, started to sound hysterical statements, threats, and smear campaigns against Azerbaijan, without careful consideration, putting aside ethics of diplomatic relations, historical reality, and conscience.

Unfortunately, one of those who demonstrated enthusiasm in this field mostly, was Iran, with which Azerbaijan has ancient historical-cultural and religious relations.

The liberation of Karabakh was not just the restoration of historical justice, but also the restoration of the Azerbaijani-Iranian border. President Ilham Aliyev congratulated the people of Azerbaijan and Iran on the occasion of the exceptionally important event and instructed them on the renovation of the defense structure of the borderline. The Head of state noted that the Iranian-Azerbaijani border would be a friendship and fraternity border.

Official Baku expected that the removal of occupation would also be welcomed by Tehran which spoke about so-called “friendship and fraternity” relations with Azerbaijan over the past period, with joy, Iran would also benefit from new opportunities for cooperation.

However, the progress of events showed that Tehran had completely different thinking and dreams. The reason for the establishment of the tension between the two countries, observed today, has been Iran itself.

Some Iranian circles that got into a panic that the removal of the occupation will further strengthen Azerbaijan and make it a strong regional country, started to make dirty campaigns, make provocative statements, and take practical steps. The ridiculous sentences that were voiced in the meetings of the mullahs before soon fell into the mouths of the officials and turned into declarations, and a little later, into provocative actions such as conducting military exercises on the border with Azerbaijan.

Iran did not take into account the cooperation and friendly neighboring calls voiced at the highest level by the Azerbaijani side immediately after the elimination of the occupation, in the contrary chose the road to make the tension between the two countries and people at a level that has been never seen.

Azerbaijan's deepening of alliance and partnership relations with friendly countries after the elimination of the occupation worried Iran to such an extent that Tehran, which considered it a threat to itself, felt compelled to respond. The answer was, first of all, to bring up the importance of relations with Armenia, which has been engaged in unprecedented defilements in mosques and other holy places for 30 years, and to issue unilateral and targeted statements supporting this country. Hastily opened a consulate in an unrepaired building in the city of Gafan, located on the Zangazur corridor. After that, it made statements on the opening of the Armenian consulate in Tabriz, the heart of Azerbaijan.

On top of it, military exercises were organized on the southern borders of Azerbaijan, along the Araz River, religious and political figures increased the number of threatening claims against Azerbaijan, and Tehran's media, obeying strict censorship, started "scary tales". But very soon, Iran realized that its old tracked cars and pansy poems did not scare Baku, but that all these had the opposite effect. Tehran involved in the proxy wars in the Middle East, tensions with Arab countries, the economy collapsed by Western sanctions, and most importantly, the riots that have been going on for months and are increasingly showing signs of revolution has realized that it does not need a new problem with Azerbaijan and Baku.

Most probably, that is what made Advisor to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and former foreign minister Ali Akbar Vilayati write this article.

Noting in his article that Iran had never a plan to capture Azerbaijan, on the contrary, if any country occupies Azerbaijan, Iran will stand by Azerbaijan for support, Vilayati stated that Azerbaijani people played an important role in Iran’s history and remembered the heroisms of Shah Ismail Khatai.

No matter how many ambiguous expressions are included in the article, in terms of Iran expressing its intention to retreat from the tension with Azerbaijan, it can be assessed positively. In this article, where Vilayati calls the people of the Republic of Azerbaijan "the light of our eyes", but mentions that every Azerbaijani is Iranian, it sounded a bit strange. This article reminds of the generalized form of Iranian officials’ contradictory statements about Azerbaijan. However, Azerbaijan prefers to focus on positive points, because Baku was always in favor of regional peace, and cooperation.

Assistant to Azerbaijani President- Head of the Foreign Policy Department of the Presidential Administration Hikmat Hajiyev noted in his yesterday’s statement that Azerbaijan was always interested in the development of relations with Iran based on mutual respect and confidence at all times and that this was still a case. He stated that Ali Akbar Vilayati’s notes on our people having mutual historical, religious, and cultural heritage and traditions and in general notes voiced regarding Azerbaijani-Iranian relations, are assessed positively.

From the words of Vilayat, it can be concluded that Iran seems to have finally understood that threatening Azerbaijan does not work. So it makes this gesture reduces tension.

In general, it is a bit difficult to forecast how Iranian-Azerbaijani relations will continue in the near future because Iran itself is a country that is difficult to predict. These relations will likely depend on internal processes in Iran. However, it is clear that developing a line of cooperation rather than tension is to the benefit of both parties. In this regard, Tehran's step back in the tension with Azerbaijan is a very important event. The main thing is that Iran is sincere in its intention to cooperate.

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