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US experts concern over reports on Russian-Armenian 800 million dollars arm deal - EXCLUSIVE

US experts concern over reports on Russian-Armenian 800 million dollars arm deal - <font color=red>EXCLUSIVE</font>

28 January 2009 09:41 (UTC +04:00)

Frederick Starr, Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of the John Hopkins University told APA US bureau that they donâ€™t know who released the document about the arm shipment to Armenia. â€œWe donâ€™t know who released the document, is this a sign of internal disagreement within the Russian military or Russian political world, or they come out of Armenia by some interest there damaging Azeri-Russian relations. Itâ€™s much to earlier to say but I donâ€™t think that we can ignore it though and I think obviously it creates the unpleasant smell of Abkhaziaâ€, said Starr and added that Azerbaijan should not let these negative developments divert its attention from whatâ€™s the long term strategic goal and thatâ€™s to solve the problem. â€œHow this will be done I donâ€™t know. But do the most people in Azerbaijan want to see the issue be solved peacefully? Of cause they do and most Armenians want to solve it peacefully. Is it worth the price of holding on these occupied lands? Is that worth the price that Armenia is paying in terms of internal social and economical developments? Of cause it isnâ€™t and at certain point Armenia will acknowledge this and then we will see quick movement forwardâ€.

Cory Welt, associate director of Eurasian Strategy Project at the Georgetown University said that if allegations are true it shouldnâ€™t be surprise for Azerbaijan. â€œIf these allegations are indeed true, and the evidence suggests that they are, then first it shouldnâ€™t come as any surprise that these kinds of weapons were delivered to Armenia, given Russia’s strong alliance with it. But what it does do, in terms of its timing, is make clear to Azerbaijan that Russia remains very much not a neutral actor, very much remains on one side of the conflict. And as dissatisfied as Azerbaijan might be with Western approaches to the conflict, it makes very clear that Russia cannot be the sole mediator. I donâ€™t think that Russia will, or should, be eliminated from the conflict resolution process even with this revelation, but it makes more clear that Russia will not be able work alone and Azerbaijan more than anyone else in the region must continue to actively search for sustained American and European engagement in the conflict resolution processâ€.

Ariel Cohen, Senior Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation said Russia had a serious challenge. â€œAzerbaijani military budget is in a size of entire Armenian budget. From the Russian point of view, they want to maintain the balance between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Historically Russia supported Armenia. But shift of weapons now doesnâ€™t make sense. Keeping in the mind the Western orientation of Azerbaijan and keeping in mind that overall attitude in Moscow is to keep the conflicts frozen, and defrost them when it suites the interest of Russia. In one hand, we see the shipment of weapons to Armenia, in another hand Russian president Medvedev is hosting a summit, and in third hand nothing comes out to be worth mentioning in terms of real change the relationship between Armenia and Azerbaijanâ€.