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Nagorno Karabakh conflict: Potential revenge in US-Russia confrontation â€“ ANALYSIS

Nagorno Karabakh conflict: Potential revenge in US-Russia confrontation â€“ <font color=red> ANALYSIS </font>

26 August 2008 14:46 (UTC +04:00)

Baku. Vugar Mesimoghlu â€“ APA. How will the recent happenings in the South Caucasus influence the process of settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict? This question became more urgent after both houses of Russian parliament passed a decision to recognize the separatist regions in Georgia as independent states.

The recent military confrontation struck a blow on the public opinion on â€œfrozen conflictsâ€ in the post-Soviet area, not on Georgia. Russiaâ€™s recent actions reduced belief in the possibility of military solution of â€œfrozen conflictsâ€ in the post-Soviet republics. This is obviously felt in various comments, reviews, interviews and news on the development sin Georgia. Is it possible that the variant on military solution of â€œfrozen conflictsâ€ has been removed from the agenda once and for all? Actually, putting the question in this way is wrong. It should be â€œCan the conflicts in the post-Soviet area be solved beyond Russiaâ€™s will?â€.

In fact, it is obvious to whom the public opinion puts this question. The side that will answer the question is the West. In order to answer this question as â€œIt is possibleâ€, the US and European Union should achieve progress in the settlement of at least one â€œfrozen conflictâ€ in the post-Soviet area. The West has limited chance to choose the conflicts in Georgia for revenge. Russia has taken concrete steps with respect to South Ossetia and Abkhazia and proved that to defend its interests it will not abstain even from military confrontation.

For that reason the West will have to make choice between Transdniestrian and Nagorno Karabakh conflicts, if it wants to change public opinion in its favor. The first version is less thinkable. Most probably Washington will choose Nagorno Karabakh conflict as revenge because US interests in the Caucasus are superior than interests in Moldova. It is just one of the scenarios for transformation of the Georgian processes to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

How the United States can take revenge? First of all it is possible that Washington will leave its double standard position in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and fully support Azerbaijan. The United States has a decisive position in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict like Russia, in difference with the Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-Ossetian conflicts. At the same time the United States has an opportunity to compete with Russia at the same weight category in Azerbaijan as distinct from Georgia. It means that US has an opportunity to influence upon both sides as distinct from Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Therefore it canâ€™t be ruled out that US will take revenge from Russia on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict if their struggle for the interests is sharpened.

The United States is trying to avoid confrontation in the South Caucasus yet and is interested in restoration of previous situation. However not Washington, but Moscow dictates the situation now and so US has to review backups. US Vice President Richard Cheneyâ€™s visit to Azerbaijan shows that Washington intends to give a role of center of gravity in its future plans to Azerbaijan. It is not inconceivable that Richard Cheney will spend to the discussions over the settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict not less time than energy corridors issue.