Foreign

Home page

Foreign

New stage in Russia-West confrontation: Recognition of separatist regimes â€“ ANALYSIS

New stage in Russia-West confrontation: Recognition of separatist regimes â€“ <font color=red>ANALYSIS</font>

25 August 2008 15:23 (UTC +04:00)

Baku. Vugar Masimoglu â€“ APA. Russia used one of the bargaining chips in the relations with the West â€“ Federation Council and State Duma has today called on President Dmitry Medvedev to recognize separatist Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. Russiaâ€™s this step shows that the tension in the region will last for a long time and rapidly transform to the international arena.

Recognition of the separatist regimes is the Kremlinâ€™s response to the west in connection with Kosovo incident. When western states were going to recognize Kosovoâ€™s independence, Moscow claimed that it would recognize other separatist regimes in return. The Kremlin did not answer to Kosovo incident immediately, as Russia-US dialogue on installation of missile defense system in Europe was continuing. The result of the dialogue is obvious. The US and Poland signed an agreement to place parts of a US missile defense system on Polish territory and with this a) officialized the end of the dialogue with Russia b) accelerated the process of the recognition of separatist regimes by Russia

The Western countries have already announced in various forms the measures they can take in terms of the relations with Russia. It includes expelling Russia from G-8, vetoing Russiaâ€™s membership to World Trade Organization, abolishing the decision on Russiaâ€™s hosting 2014 Winter Olympic Games in Sochi. Will Russiaâ€™s response action in the new â€œcold warâ€ started between the super powers result in the recognition of separatist regimes? Russia has enough reserve variants that may make the situation in the international arena much tenser.

It includes
a) deployment of long-range missiles in the anti-American regions, first of all in the Middle East (Syria already agreed to deploy Iskander missiles on its soil),
b) support for nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea,
c) veto on the Western-drafted resolutions at the UN Security Council,
d) tensing the situation in the territory of US allies in post-Soviet area (first of all in GUAM).

Naturally the most powerful arm Russia uses in this confrontation is Gasprom. Russia playing great role in the Europeâ€™s energy supply has an opportunity to pressure upon these countries and to create tensions in the worldâ€™s energy market. Becoming the Europeâ€™s gas producer Russia gets additional opportunities. The Kremlin is able to manipulate with gas prices, to stop gas transportation to Europe under the different pretexts, to create crisis in the energy market and to strain economic crisis in the countries of European Union. For that reason some European countries protested the Russiaâ€™s isolation at the NATO last meeting at the level of Foreign Ministers and prevented adoption of US-proposed final declaration.

The West and Russia have backup versions of pressure to break stability and balance of forces in the world. The sides have already put two of the trumps they have on the table. US achieved recognition of Kosovo and reached agreement with Poland to deploy its missile defense shield on its soil and Russia sent troops to Georgia and is going to recognize the separatist regimes in the territory of this country. Intensifying tensions in the world and in the region will depend on which methods of pressure and confrontation the sides will choose further.