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Azerbaijani political analysts assess the processes ongoing in Syria â€“ SURVEY

Azerbaijani political analysts assess the processes ongoing in Syria â€“ <font color=red>SURVEY </font>

08 August 2012 09:13 (UTC +04:00)

MP, political analyst Rasim Musabeyov told APA that there is a factual war in Syria and the country could be divided: â€œBashar al-Assadâ€™s murder, even his escaping the country will not cause the radical change of the process. Syria is threatened by more intensive tensions than Iraqâ€. According to Musabeyov, the developments in Syria can form a flash point for Turkey, but Iran can lose its last ally in the region: â€œBut I donâ€™t think that all of this will have an impact on Azerbaijan. Syriaâ€™s division can lead to unofficial establishment of Kurdish, Alevi enclavesâ€. Musabeyov said there was no religious factor in the developments because all countries that are against Bashar al-Assadâ€™s government are Muslim states, but those who support Assadâ€™s power are idolatrous China, Christian Russia. It is wrong to assess the developments as the Westâ€™s policy against the Muslimsâ€.

Chairman of Azerbaijan Social Democratic Party, political analyst Araz Alizadeh said that the civil war in Syria has no relation to building of democracy and brilliant future: â€œThe Syria project is a part of process of the US and its allies to overmaster all oil countries. As, not the local population, but hired terrorists fought against Qaddafi in Libya, the same situation is created in Syria too. Turkey wants to use the Libya and Syria developments and become a leader of the region. But it will fail. Turkey will face here the same situation as in Libya and will not receive any share from oil. Turkey wants to use the Westâ€™s opportunities and current situations in order to increase its image in the worldâ€. Alizadeh also accused Turkish government of not preventing this process: â€œTurkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan names himself an Islamist, but wants to profit by death of Muslimsâ€. He noted that the Azerbaijani people must be vigilant and remain unprovokedâ€.

Director of the Centre of Caspian Studies, political analyst Vafa Guluzadeh is of opinion that Bashar al-Assad will be ousted and new system will be created in Syria. He said Bashar al-Assad could resist own peopleâ€™s and international pressure because of Russia. â€œRussia keeps a military base in Syria and Russian military experts work in this country. Indeed, Syria is Russiaâ€™s last stronghold in the Middle East. The forces opposing it rely upon the Arab world and NATOâ€.

Speaking about the impact of this process on Azerbaijan, Guluzadeh said that Azerbaijan must be far from the war ongoing in the region, maintain its internal stability and show its correct choice, continue integrating into NATO and the West.

Guluzadeh said that Russia must leave the East: â€œThe third world war hasnâ€™t been finished yet and the first round of this war was the collapse of USSR, in the second phase, Russiaâ€™s allied joined the NATO and Russia was forced to leave its strongholds. The last round will be Russia itselfâ€. Political analyst said that Russian peoples already want to live not in empire, but in a normal democratic state: â€œRussia returns to 1917. It is on the eve of October revolution. The Russian press writes that Russia is pregnant with revolution. I consider these thoughts as very important. The collapse of Russia will be also the reason of Armenian destruction. Nagorno Karabakh conflict will also find its solution together with this processâ€.

Political analyst Gabil Huseynli condemned Russia and China for Syrian civil war. According to him, if Russia and China didnâ€™t prevent the adoption of UN Security Council resolution on Syria, this country wouldnâ€™t face such human losses today: â€œBashar al-Assadâ€™s actions are dictated by other states, but now he will be ousted. Assad will leave country to a deep regressâ€. Huseynli also stressed the discussions on formation of political configuration in Syria: â€œArab springâ€ comes to logical end in Syriaâ€.

According to Huseynliâ€™s thoughts, Russia wonâ€™t give Bashar al-Assad a political asylum: â€œItâ€™s more convincing that Iran will take this stepâ€.