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Analyst Samuel Lussac: â€œFrench co-presidency of the Minsk Group should have been transferred for a long time to the EUâ€ - EXCLUSIVE

Analyst Samuel Lussac: â€œFrench co-presidency of the Minsk Group should have been transferred for a long time to the EUâ€ - <font color=red>EXCLUSIVE</font>

28 July 2011 10:02 (UTC +04:00)

Washington. Isabel Levine â€“ APA. APA US correspondentâ€™s interview with Samuel Lussac, a Ph.D. candidate in International Relations at the Institute of Political Science of Bordeaux, who also contributes to the Washington DC-based Central Asia Caucasus Institute. Mr. Lussac has published numerous papers on the politics and economy in Azerbaijan, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, and other topics related to EU-South Caucasus cooperation.

- Azerbaijan expressed a hope that the Eastern Partnership Program would have a concrete meaning and its citizens should clearly see what will be the benefits of this program. What should be done to increase the EU role for example, in the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement process?

- The involvement of the EU in the South Caucasus, and especially in Azerbaijan, is a long-standing issue. Clearly, the EU has to do more. First, the South Caucasian countries should demonstrate that they want "more Europe" in their region. Committing to deliver 10 billion cubic meters of gas to the Southern Corridor project, Azerbaijan has shed light into its intention to build strong relationships with the EU.

Second, the member-states should give more power to the EU in the South Caucasus. For instance, the French co-presidency of the Minsk Group should have been transferred for a long time to the EU. Only the EU as whole can be a honest broker for both Armenia and Azerbaijan. While the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement process has reached a deadlock, I hope that the EU can create the opportunity to play a stronger role.

- Today, Azerbaijan is actively building a policy to provide gas to EU countries, and therefore is participating in negotiations on several projects. The EU is in active discussions on several projects at once for shipment of hydrocarbons from the Caspian region. These projects include Nabucco, Trans-Adriatic pipeline (TAP), and ITGI (Interconnector Turkey-Greece-Italy). Which one would be Azerbaijanâ€™s choice?

- This is the issue so far. As you may know, the Shah Deniz consortium is supposed to announce the results of its gas purchase tender in the beginning of October. So far, ITGI and TAP seemed to have ran the race, as they better fit with the requirements of the Shah Deniz consortium. However, we are still waiting for a gas transit agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkey.

In these conditions, Nabucco seems to be a more reliable option, still very expensive though. To make it short, it is still very hard to tell which project will cross the finish line first at the end of the year. However, I would bet that the project that will win will be the one that meets both Shah Deniz consortiumâ€™s and Azerbaijanâ€™s expectations. That is a project that could ship Azerbaijani gas through a reliable and competitive route while offering direct market access in Eastern and Southern Eastern Europe to SOCAR.

- Also, there is much talk in the EU about Nabucco and Azerbaijanâ€™s role in it, but thereâ€™s still nothing concrete to show for the project. How can you explain this?

- Nabucco is first and foremost a project supported by the EU Commission. It lacks political support not only in Azerbaijan but also in Turkey. At the moment, it does not fit very much with the expectations of Azerbaijan. It is expensive but Azerbaijan does not want to pay for it. It does not clearly provide direct market access to SOCAR, which is becoming quite big in Eastern Europe. Finally, Azerbaijan has perceived the successive changes of routes of Nabucco (first starting in Ankara, the in Sivas, today in Baku) as a lack of professionalism. So far, Nabucco has thus failed to provide confidence to Azerbaijan.

- It is no secret that Russia is not happy with closer relationships between EU and Azerbaijan and its officials openly stated that the Eastern Partnership program is aimed against Russiaâ€™s interests. Is it possible that Russiaâ€™s position could frustrate or delay implementation of the program in Azerbaijan and five other countries?

- I donâ€™t think so. In my opinion, we, researchers, tend to overestimate the role of Russia in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. Nowadays, I canâ€™t see how Moscow can prevent Baku from getting closer to the EU. For instance, despite its numerous attempts to buy all the Azerbaijani gas production, Baku has always answered a strong no, preferring to commit to EU energy security. Much is also said about the leverages Russia would have in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In my opinion, the failure of the Kazan summit in late June highlights that these leverages are not so important. Despite the strong will of President Medvedev, Azerbaijan and Armenia could not reach a breakthrough. To conclude, Azerbaijan has become a strong independent state today. And I canâ€™t see which country can prevent it from following its own foreign policy.

- Much is said about the forthcoming Eurovision Song Contest in Baku. What role can this event play in Azerbaijanâ€™s path to Europe?

- The next Eurovision Song Context in Baku is a tremendous opportunity for Azerbaijan to show how much it has changed the last few years. As US Ambassador Bryza said it many times, Baku has to take this opportunity to demonstrate that is it more than a hydrocarbon-producing country. It should highlight the progress it has made towards democratization, good governance, anti-corruption struggle and so on. In the wake of the EU Eastern Partnership, this will show that Azerbaijan can be more than an energy partner of Europe.