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Azerbaijani political analysts positively assess Armeniaâ€™s suspension of protocols with Turkey

23 April 2010 14:42 (UTC +04:00)

Vafa Guluzadeh told APA that it was obvious from the very beginning that the protocols would not be realized.
â€œAmerica wished the realization of the protocols. Washington wanted to draw Armenia out of Russiaâ€™s influence, make it a regional state and hoped that after the opening of the border Armenia that is in great need will change its policy and direct its steps towards the West â€“ Turkey, this will also be a change of orientation towards NATO. Russia objected to it from the very beginning, but played a game. It allowed Armenia to sign the protocols in the initial phase. But later it gave instructions to Armenia how to act in order not to ratify the protocols and to lay the responsibility on Turkey. Serzh Sargsyan acted this way. He pursued a destructive policy in order not to ratify the protocols, said the genocide would not be discussed, though that issue was reflected in the protocols in a rather diplomatic manner. It did not recognize Turkeyâ€™s territorial integrity even after the signing of the protocols. How could the protocols be ratified after all this?â€ he said.

Vafa Guluzadeh considers that Sargsyan used the Karabakh issue as a pretext.
â€œIn the recent speech of Erdogan it appeared that he could open the border with Armenia even if Karabakh is not solved. Erdogan did it because he saw that Armenia did not want to open the border. Earlier when Erdogan was in Moscow he asked Putin to assist in the issue. Putin rejected it. The geostrategic interests of America and Russia clashed. In other words Russia has won for now, it has preserved Armenia as its â€œoutpostâ€, protected Yerevan from the influence of the West, did not allow opening of the border with Turkey. This is the matter,â€ he said.
The political analyst also drew attention to a point in Sargsyanâ€™s statement.
â€œHe has frozen the protocols and said he had entrusted the future generations with it. Can you imagine how far generation he speaks about?â€

Political scientist Ilgar Mammadov estimated the Yerevanâ€™s decision as a positive factor: â€œSargsyan is interested in ratification of the protocols rather than Turkey because he understands Armeniaâ€™s long-term needs. Armenian leadership, who rejected the links between Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and our negotiations with Yerevan, suspended one of the two processes â€“ ratification of the protocols to direct its main efforts toward the Karabakh talks. Armenia will return to the approval of protocols when there is a progress satisfied Turkeyâ€.

He said he wouldnâ€™t like to think that military patriotism in words dominated in Armenia which was behindhand in economic and demographic fields because it would lead to war. â€œAnother thing I wouldnâ€™t like to think about is the prospect of Obamaâ€™s biggest mistake on April 24 because it will also lead to warâ€.

Political scientist Mubariz Ahmadoglu called it some unfinished step. â€œIt would be better if the process was stopped completely. It would save the South Caucasus and Azerbaijan from a great trouble. But suspending the ratification of the protocols showed how unserious country Armenia is. At the same time this issue revealed the attitude of the West, particularly France and the United States, which welcomed the Serzh Sargsyanâ€™s decision. It means that both US and France believe in Armeniaâ€™s lies blindfold and donâ€™t need to check the Armeniaâ€™s statements. Similar attitude by those countries could be expected in Nagorno Karabakh issue tooâ€. The political scientist said the processes showed that there were strong and high-level friendship and strategic partnership between Turkey and Azerbaijan. â€œTurkey worthily resisted to all pressures and demonstrated that it attached great importance to the national interests of Azerbaijan. It proved that every attempt intending to damage relations between the two brother countries will failâ€.

Ahmadoglu said this process proved that if there was no progress in the settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict and Azerbaijanâ€™s national interests were not taken into consideration, any artificial process of settlement implemented in the South Caucasus would have no importance and no results.

The analyst said the President of Azerbaijan also put the countryâ€™s national interests above all and he didnâ€™t allow policy contrary to the countryâ€™s interests. â€œAzerbaijan proves once again that it has high political potential to realize its willâ€.

Political scientist Rasim Musabeyov told APA that Armenian president intended to withdraw his signature from the Zurich protocols. â€œBut Washington, Moscow and Paris convinced him not to do that. Turkey univocally told Washington that it wouldnâ€™t send the protocols even to the discussions without progress in the settlement of Karabakh conflict and put Sargsyan in a difficult position. Sargsyan is criticized by the domestic forces in Armenia and Diaspora that he couldnâ€™t achieve to push Turkey aside from the Karabakh process and to make US to recognize the so-called â€œArmenian genocide. It seems the Armenians withdraw the protocols from agenda, but Turkey has not even put it on agenda. It was expected stepâ€.

According to Musabeyov, it shows that Armeniaâ€™s intention to separate Turkey and Azerbaijan didnâ€™t justify itself. â€œAfter very short hesitation Turkey proved that it puts Azerbaijan-Turkey alliance above all. Sargsyanâ€™s decision is positive for both Turkey and Azerbaijanâ€.