Foreign

Home page

Foreign

Professor William J. Martel: Cooperation with Russia on Gabala RLS largely lacks serious purposes or results

08 January 2010 08:57 (UTC +04:00)

He believes Moscow wants to establish the idea that the invasion was an anomaly, while hoping that states in the region conclude (hope) that future actions are unlikely.
The professor says he hopes Azerbaijan will have a peaceful year, â€œhowever, this is wishful thinkingâ€. Martel explain â€œthere were no serious consequences for Russia as a result of military operations against Georgia . With the United States involved in the 2008 presidential election, neither candidate wanted to get dragged into a debate about whether relations with Russia are in decline. Second, states in the region will not forget that Russia employed economic warfare, by using natural gas as a weapon, against such states as Ukraine and othersâ€.
He says â€œrelations between Russia, the United States, and states in Eastern Europe will continue to deteriorate, largely because Moscow seeks to reestablish its primacy in the regionâ€. Furthermore, states in the region as well as Washington remain deeply (if quietly) concerned about the direction of Russian foreign policy. In professorâ€™s opinion in many terms it depends on Azerbaijan which policy to hold.
â€œFinally, what remain Russiaâ€™s two strategic weaknesses are unlikely to change: First, its authoritarian political system will only get more repressive, which will continue to antagonize the Russian people. Second, its economy is weak and as long as Russia survives based on energy revenues, it will remain strategically weak â€“ and only serves to postpone the day when it must begin to build a serious, competitive economy. China is the relevant example hereâ€

Speaking about the cooperation with Russia in security sphere, particularly, in terms of Gabala RLS, Martel says â€œcooperation with Russia on security matters is largely atmospheric right now, as it largely lacks serious purposes or results. As long as Russia â€™s foreign policy is symbolized by such events as the invasion of Georgia , use of energy as foreign policy weapon against other states, among others, states in the region as well as policymakers in the Washington and elsewhere will continue to distrust Russia â€œ.

He particularly believes it is unlikely to see any major changes â€œin Russian policy until Russia engages in serious political and economic reform just like that which many states in Eastern Europe and throughout the region have adopted -- and which makes them stronger and more prosperousâ€.