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Mark Katz: â€œIf America and Russia work together, they may both be in a good position to help Azerbaijan and Armenia help themselves to achieve peaceâ€

06 January 2010 08:44 (UTC +04:00)

In an interview with APAâ€™s Washington DC correspondent the analyst said that â€œIf there is a Turkish-Armenian settlement, then Armenia will be under less pressure to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. On the other hand, Armenia wants to integrate itself more and more with the West. The possibility of this, however, will remain limited so long as the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute remains unsettledâ€.

Mr. Katz pointed out that during the year of 2009 Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents met for 6 times, but didn’t come to any particular progress. He says that for an agreement to be reached, Armenia is going to have to compromise somewhat, and this will be unpopular of segments of public opinion in both countries.

The analyst also mentioned that â€œEspecially now Russia appears more interested in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and it is possible that the US and Russia could work together on this. It is not enough, of course, for Washington and Moscow to want this. An agreement must be found that is acceptable to both Azerbaijan and Armenia. Nobody can force an agreement on eitherâ€.

Besides that, Mr.Katz says that â€œAll moderating countries pursue their own interests; America and Russia are no exception. What is interesting now is that while Russia may have previously had an interest in seeing the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute remain unsettled, it sees its interests as being served by settling it. In my view, America all along wanted it settled, but did not have sufficient influence to bring this about. If America and Russia work together, they may both be in a good position to help Azerbaijan and Armenia help themselves to achieve peaceâ€.

Katz notices the region continues to remain tense, but â€œthe prospects for war breaking out again do not appear imminent. The ongoing conflict resolution efforts may not actually succeed in resolving the region’s problems, but they do appear to be helping it to avoid renewed fightingâ€.