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Director Analysis of Stratfor Lauren Goodrich: â€œAll of which make it very clear that Azerbaijan doesnâ€™t trust Turkey or the West at least for the time beingâ€

29 April 2009 09:30 (UTC +04:00)

- Turkey and Armenia held long secret talks in Geneva. It is well known fact that without involvement of Russia, no serious deal can be reached in the region. What is the Russian approach to the most recent developments of Turks and Armenians?

- It started off a few months ago, when we started to receive the information that â€œgreater dealâ€ between Armenia and Turkey was being negotiated by Russians. It is well known fact that Armenians will listen to Moscow. If Moscow says them OK then, they have a deal with Turkey, if Russia says no they donâ€™t have a deal with Turkey.
So any talks going on in Geneva was very long going but the problem is that it canâ€™t go anywhere until Russians involved. And Russians for years have stood in the ways of these talks because they didnâ€™t want Turkey to have greater influence inside of the Caucasus. The Caucasus is such a strategic buffer zone to the Russians, if Russia allows Armenia to open up to Turkish influence then the buffer is compromised for the Russians. But recently Russia has been dealing with Turkey on the different levels. It is not only about the Caucasus, but it is about the greater balance in the world. Specially, when the USA and Russia are forming a new rivalry or renovated rivalry where Turkey is in the middle of that. Turkey is â€œan ally of the USAâ€ and they suppose to be a regional rival of Russia. But at the same time Russia provides the majority of Turkeyâ€™s energy, so Moscow knows that it has a rare opportunity to work with the Turks instead of competing with them or accepting them simply as a US ally. That why Russia felt that maybe they can reach a deal with Turkey. One of the cards that Russia was offering to Turkey would what if we negotiate a deal with Armenia for the Turks. The second card was that the Russians told the Turks that if they wanted more leverage within Europeâ€”whether it be to help with its EU bid or in general-- than Russia could help wield the energy card as part of Turkeyâ€™s leverage over Europe. Of course, in return, Russia was asking for a greater understanding with Turkey for Ankara to not ally too heavily with Washington, as well as, Turkeyâ€™s help in containing Europeâ€™s energy options outside of Russian supplies. This sounds complicated, but such a deal was actually being considered by both sides. This is when the world started to see shifts in the region. Turkey began to renege on its plans to support European energy diversification and movement by the Armenians (with Russian guidance) in a deal with the Turks. And this was working out until last month Barak Obama made a big tour to Europe and ended up in Turkey. When Obama sat down with Medvedev, the meeting clearly did not go well since neither side was willing to give in on the others demands of supply routes to Afghanistan and BMD in Poland. There is a reason why Obama saved his trip to Turkey for last to speak to the Turks about countering Moscow. So everything which was going on with Turkey and Armenia it not much about Turkey and Armenia but it is about Turkey, Russia and the U.S.

- More people speaking out about the possibility not losing Azerbaijan by Turkey, but by the West at large. Do you agree with this approach?

- I think that there will not be any deal between Turkey and Armenia until Russia and Turkey find out how they want to build their relations with each other and balance the US factor within that. At the same time Russia and Turkey really donâ€™t want to be involved in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. They understand that if they do, no matter which side they choose, it will severely infuriate Armenians or will severely infuriate Azerbaijanis. For the first time in a long time both Ankara and Moscow are trying to balance relationship with both Yerevan and Bakuâ€”involving oneself in the Nagorno-Karabakh situation will ruin that balance. When Aliyev was recently in Moscow there were small delegations from all sides though it was primarily a meeting for Russia and Azerbaijan. At one off those meetings, the Turkish representative made it clear to the Azerbaijanis that Turkey would not be involved in mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh situation. Turkey said it would support both sides coming to a resolution, but did not want to be put in the middle. Both Moscow and Ankara know that the situation is far too complicated for a compromise by Yerevan or Baku â€”one side would have to step completely back. Plus, Turkey and Russia donâ€™t want the conflict stay in their way of greater dealâ€”which is naturally more important to them.

- So you want to say that the border will be opened without finding a reasonable solution of Nagorno-Karabakh issue?

- That one of the options which is at the table now. The problem is that should this occur than the good relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey will suffer if not be temporarily destroyed. Turkey doesnâ€™t feel itself comfortable with opening the border without a resolution on Nagorno-Karabakh, but at the same time they see no resolution that conflict. They are not sure if the window of opportunity with Russia and Armenia will continue, so many within Turkey want to move now, while others within Turkey are more concerned with betraying Azerbaijan. Upcoming months will be very critical in the reopening of the border. First, Azerbaijan is threatening to cut natural gas supplies to Turkey. This is where one wildcard could enter the situation we have not yet spoken ofâ€” Europe; for if the Europeans feel that Azerbaijani-Turkish dispute may jeopardyâ€™s its own energy supply than they could get involved. Second, there is serious frustration within the Turkish government over the decision to â€œbetrayâ€ Azerbaijan on top of much resentment in Turkish society because of the recent statement of President Obama on the commemoration of 94th anniversary of Armenian genocide. Lastly, the other Caucasus puzzle piece, Georgia, is also extremely unhappy with the decision to open the border since not one other player has consulted their view of the situation.
So we have to look week by week (if not day by day) for every small shift since there are so many players and pieces involved. So as each new event takes shape we must reassess how the situation will change.

- What will be short and long term circumstances for the region if the Turkey opens the border?

- This is a very interesting question because we are already seeing Azerbaijan changing its path. It was first hinted to when Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev rejected the offer from Hilary Clinton for both sides to meet in Istanbul, and then was followed up by a rejection to attend the energy summit in Sofia and a natural gas deal with Russia. All of which make it very clearâ€”at least for the time being-- that Azerbaijan doesnâ€™t trust Turkey or the West. It doesnâ€™t mean that Turkey and Azerbaijan are not brothers anymore. But this means that at this moment Azerbaijan feels so betrayed that it is actually turning to Russia, which is very rare since the fall of the Soviet Union. But this is definitely a situation that Russia wants to take full advantage of. If Azerbaijan doesnâ€™t use its relationship with Moscow as leverage against Turkeyâ€™s relationship with Armenia, then Turkey may discount Azerbaijanâ€™s ultimatum.