International rating agency Fitch Ratings forecasts that the price of Brent crude oil will steadily decline to $70 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026, APA-Economics reports, citing the rating agency.
Although the US-Iran war and the resulting oil supply shock have worsened the global credit environment, they have not fundamentally changed the baseline expectations for the global credit market.
According to the report, compared with the initial assessment made at the end of last year, the number of sectors and assets assessed as "deteriorating" for 2026 has increased significantly. Fitch expects operating and business conditions to weaken in about one-third of the sectors it rates, while asset performance in structured finance sectors is also expected to decline compared with 2025.
The agency noted that although rising macro-credit risks have led to some rating downgrades and an increase in negative outlooks for certain sectors, the vast majority of ratings continue to carry a "Stable" outlook.
According to Fitch's assessment, although the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz for approximately four months would have a serious impact, oil prices are expected to decline toward the end of the year because the shock to the oil market is considered temporary.
The report also emphasized that the investment boom in artificial intelligence has supported global trade, particularly for Asia's technology exporters. Increased capital investment in the United States and investor optimism related to artificial intelligence have also been among the factors supporting economic activity despite the easing labor market.
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