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Forecast: Azerbaijan to continue increase of currency stocks next year

30 December 2011 09:48 (UTC +04:00)

Under the declaration, according to IMF forecasts, oil price will make over $100/a barrel, next year and this is higher ($80) than budget package. In this circumstance, increase of currency stocks on the account of surplus in current operation account will be continued. According to CB assessments, the surplus in current operations account of payment balance will be equal to GDPâ€™s 20-25%.

According to social economic development forecasts of the country, GDP is expected to rise 5.7%, next year. Taking the expected volume of oil extraction into consideration, economic growth will occur by non-oil sector (mainly under the influence of domestic need). Inflationâ€™s factors are expected to form under the affects of both domestic need and external factors. Actuality of macroeconomic stability targets will be increased in this condition, next year. Generally, anti-inflationary policy will save its actuality and CBâ€™s main target will make keeping of annual inflation at the single-digit level, in 2012. To achieve target on inflation, Central Bank will use the money supply and exchange rate as way targets.

Declaration says exchange rate of manat will remain as a factor in keeping of macroeconomic stability, management of financial stability, as well protection of international competitiveness of non-oil sector. Increase of currency inflows to the country next year is the main factor influencing the rate of manat .

Main priorities of Central Bank are restructuring, stimulation of competitiveness in in te sector. For strengthening of competitiveness in the sector, investing by Brand foreign banks will be promoted.