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US EIA cuts forecast for 2023 global liquids production, demand

13 October 2022 16:59 (UTC +04:00)

The US Energy Information Administration on Oct. 12 cut its forecast for 2023 global petroleum liquids production by 600,000 b/d to 100.7 million b/d, and cut its global consumption forecast by 500,000 b/d to 101.03 million b/d, citing lower GDP growth, APA reports.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said OPEC crude production would average 28.6 million b/d over the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, down from 29.6 million b/d in September, following the cartel's announced 2 million b/d production cut Oct. 5.

However, the EIA sees OPEC crude output rising by the middle of the year, bringing the 2023 average to 28.85 million b/d, up slightly from 28.58 million b/d in 2022.

The EIA expects US crude production to average 12.4 million b/d in 2023, up from 11.7 million b/d in 2022.

Global demand was reduced lower "in response to a lower forecast for global GDP from Oxford Economics," the EIA said in its report.

The EIA report echoes a similar demand downgrade by OPEC on Oct. 12. The producer bloc now sees consumption this year below 100 million b/d for the first time since August 2021, stating: "Risks are skewed to the downside with slowing growth in the global economy, if continued, likely leading to lower oil demand in the months to come."

Based on the drop in expected consumption, the EIA lowered its 2023 Brent price forecast to $94.58/b from its prior forecast of $96.91/b, and cut its 2023 WTI price forecast to $88.58/b from $90.91/b.