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Record US oil output is expected, forecasts EIA

09 February 2022 11:23 (UTC +04:00)

"Our expectation of falling oil prices, particularly beyond [the first half of 2022], is contingent on our forecast of oil production and inventory growth," the US Energy Information Administration's said Feb. 8 in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, APA-Economics reports.

"However, oil production might not meet our expectations because of possible changes in production targets from OPEC+, continuing technical issues among some producers, and changes in the investment decisions of US tight oil operators, among other possible reasons."

For now, the EIA raised its 2022 outlook for US oil production by 170,000 b/d to 11.97 million b/d, and nudged up its outlook for 2023 as well by 190,000 b/d to 12.60 million b/d.

US oil output in November, the latest available data point, reached almost 11.8 million b/d, the highest output since April 2020, the EIA said. And the agency's forecast for full-year 2023 production would be a new annual-average record. The previous record was 12.3 million b/d set in 2019.

The agency attributes higher production to increases in well completions and rig counts in the Permian Basin, with rig count growth in that region accounting for more than half of the US total.