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United States new client for Azerbaijanian Gabala Radar?

24 August 2007 10:47 (UTC +04:00)

Though Russiaâ€™s announcement on its plan to renounce Gabala radar station first sounded sensational, todayâ€™s realities show this step was expected one. Moscowâ€™s intention to refuse early warning system in near abroad is not related to the countryâ€™s changed interests but its aim to improve its missile defense system.
Moscow, possessor of the most up-to-date defense systems does not think it is efficient to control military establishments, including radar stations in neighboring countries. As such establishments rented by Russia can be possibly used as a means of pressure against Moscow, and Russian space troops Commander, Colonel General Vladimir Popovkin confessed these in recent statement. The top military official considered it necessary to end dependence of the countryâ€™s national security interests on other countriesâ€™ politicians and sees the way out to renounce its rented radar stations in these countries. Of course, this sensational statement does not mean Russiaâ€™s immediate refusal of all defense systems, including Gabala radar station (Azerbaijan) existing in former Soviet republics. Moscow might carry out this process gradually as its missile defense system is improved. Russia is about to complete the construction of a new, the most up-to-date radar station in Armavir city, which can fully substitute Gabala radar station, so, it seems more realistic that Moscow would refuse Gabala Radar after 2012.
The main question now is related to the influence of refusal of Gabala Radar on the relations between Russia and Azerbaijan.
The mentioned radar is not important in terms of military interests of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has neither INTEREST nor OPPORTUNITIES to use Gabala Radar Station. The only importance of the station for Azerbaijan is that it might be used as a means of balancing in foreign policy. Russiaâ€™s renting of Gabala for a long-term played a significant role in balancing the interests with Russia. Can Russiaâ€™s refusal of Gabala Radar affect on the balancing policy of Azerbaijanâ€™s external policy? Of course, the answer should be negative as

a) Russiaâ€™s interests in the region are not only of military character,
b) Renting of Gabala Radar is not the only tool in the policy of balancing interests,
c) Russia refuses Gabala radar voluntarily, Azerbaijan has no role in this process,
d) Refusing Gabala radar station does not change the coverage and structure of Russiaâ€™s interests in the region (With Armavir radar system Moscow will carry out its mission of controlling missile launch in a large territory lying till Middle East and Indian Ocean)

So, Kremlinâ€™s refusal of Gabala radar station will neither change struggle of interests, nor balance of forces. The only thing Azerbaijan may lose is $10 million rental annually, which is not a big sum against the flow of oil revenues and fast economic growth. On the other hand, Moscowâ€™s refusal of Gabala radar station will positively influence on the solution of environmental problems in the north of Azerbaijan. Such factors destroy possible populist claims that Colonel General Vladimir Popovkinâ€™s statement means pressure on Azerbaijan.

The only issue that remaining open in the analyzed subject is â€œIf Russia refuses Gabala radar station, can Azerbaijan rent this military object to another country?â€ It is difficult to reply to this question unambiguously in current situation. The big difference between the US and Russian missile defense systems reduces the supposition of Washingtonâ€™s renting this establishment. The US is to fully reconstruct the station if it decides to rent this establishment, deploy extra supporting forces in the region, in other words, it is to take measures it is now taking in the Czech Republic and Poland today in Azerbaijan too. In the analyzed situation Gabala radar station is of no importance to Washington except great insignificant wall. On the other hand, Russia knows that radar stations it will refuse in post-soviet countries-Ukraine, Belarus, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are of no importance for other countries and therefore, it freely voices statements regarding refusal of these stations. It is easy for any third country to deploy modern stations rather than renting the stations with the technologies of 60-70s. It is much likely that Russiaâ€™s refusal of Gabala radar station will result in this establishment remaining in the archives of history. /APA-Analytics/