Asia

Home page

Asia

Optimism at possible Israeli-Palestinian peace talks

28 April 2010 04:25 (UTC +04:00)

Baku-APA. There is renewed hope in Washington that Palestinian-Israeli peace talks will resume as early as next week after a hiatus of some 18 months, APA reports quoting news.xinhuanet.com website.

In an interview with Israel’s Channel 2 TV that was broadcast Monday night, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said he is optimistic the Arab League will approve indirect talks when it meets on May 1.

A Syrian newspaper, however, suggested on Tuesday that support from the league was not guaranteed. Syria objects to the pan-Arab governing body making decisions on behalf of the Palestinians.

Yet the mood in Israel and the Palestinian territories remains relatively buoyant after months of pessimism.

Should the talks commence next month though, the leaders will have to agree on their nature.

ROAD TO PROXIMITY TALKS

"Let (Israel) come and try us. In the name of the Palestine Liberation Organization, we are prepared to make an agreement," Abbas said in his opening statement in the interview. He then said he hopes the Arab League will okay the commencement of the talks.

This is something of a turn around on Abbas’ part.

Until now, the Palestinian leader has insisted there would be no talks unless Israel agrees to a full cessation of building work both in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

A week ago, sources told Xinhua Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected U.S. demand that Israel halt construction in any part of Jerusalem, which he sees as Israel’s "united, indivisible capital."

That leaves Israeli political science professor Galia Golan thinking the change in Abbas’ stance must be the result of the Americans exerting intense pressure on him.

"I have a feeling that Abbas has had really no choice; Obama has made it very clear that while he’s bringing his pressure on Israel, the relations with Netanyahu are so strained that the Palestinians must come back to negotiations," said Golan, who is a leader of Israel’s Peace Now movement.

Golan believed there are positive signals all around when U.S. envoy George Mitchell was in the Middle East this weekend.

"The trouble is you don’t know how much of that is propaganda and how much is real," she said.

INTENTIONS OF BOTH SIDES DOUBTFUL

Even if talks do begin early next month, there is considerable cynicism on both sides of the fence regarding the seriousness, with which the prospective interlocutors will take that process.

"Let’s see if (the Palestinians) stop talking and begin doing," said Jonathan Fighel, a senior researcher at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, which is located just to the north of Tel Aviv.

"Are the Palestinians going to carry on talking, messing about and confusing everyone or are they ready to enter a serious framework? Right now the ball is mainly in their court," he added.

Likewise, Golan wondered just how well-intentioned the Netanyahu team will be. She believed they are likely to drag out the initial phase of talks for as long as possible. She compared Netanyahu’s likely tactics to those of Yitzhak Shamir, who was Israel’s premier in the 1980s. Shamir was known for his diplomatic procrastination.

Even if Israel was led by someone other than the hawkish Netanyahu, the Palestinians would be sceptical regarding the negotiations because of their disillusionment with past parleys " that never went anywhere. They were a sham," she said.

Israel is ready to enter the proximity talks during which it is prepared to make some "cosmetic concessions," suggested Fighel.

In his opinion, moving quickly from proximity or indirect talks to real negotiations is in Israel’s best interest.

Until Israel moves towards final-status talks, the Israeli- Palestinian conflict will remain center stage. With the advancement of the peace process will come a strategic benefit to Israel, he argued.

"If it doesn’t, there are sufficient negative forces prepared to take advantage of the conflict to advance enmity in the region - - not just among the Palestinian people, also the Iranians, the Syrians and Hezbollah," warned Fighel.

DOMESTIC POPULARITY OF THE TWO LEADERS

However, in both camps there are likely stumbling blocks, which Abbas and Netanyahu may find tough to shift.

Golan feared Abbas will not gain much support at home for joining any talks with Israel right now. A poll published earlier this month and one to be issued later this week both indicate that Abbas’ popularity is on the up on the Palestinian street.

"The reason is that he has been holding firm in not agreeing to just go back to talks, so there’s going to have to be something said about these talks that will strengthen Abbas," said Golan.

The discussions may well produce nothing, particularly because they are likely to be indirect. If that is the case then his popularity could well freefall once again, she said.

Domestic support for Abbas was in decline until recently, because he was seen to be weak in the face of the U.S. pressure last year regarding the Goldstone inquiry into the Gaza war, which took place some 16 months ago.

Similarly, Fighel was not convinced that Netanyahu can create the necessary environment for concessions because of the political make up of his own coalition back home.

His government is mainly composed of hawks, with just one party, Labor, offering a dovish shoulder for Netanyahu. Indeed, Labor’s leader, Ehud Barak, is in Washington this week attempting to set the stage for Mitchell’s scheduled return to the Middle East next week.

The U.S. envoy hopes Barak’s visit, coupled with that to the Middle East of U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Hale, will pave the way to the early resumption of peace talks.

There is also talk in Israel right now of a possible formalization of the peace process when Abbas is slated to meet Obama at the White House next month.

Yet despite the guarded optimism all parties involved realize that even if talks do begin in the next couple of weeks, the substantial gaps between the Israelis and Palestinians mean the odds of their success are still extremely long.