London Summit: Reality of no security guarantee for Ukraine, shadowed by empty promises-ANALYSIS

London Summit:  Reality of no security guarantee for Ukraine, shadowed by empty promises-ANALYSIS
# 03 March 2025 20:30 (UTC +04:00)

There were great expectations from the Summit organized in London on March 2 to discuss the security of Europe and the solution to the Russia- Ukraine war. The Summit, hosted by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, was attended by leaders of 18 countries, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and NATO officials.

However, even though Zelenskyy, who returned "empty-handed" from the meeting with US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office, attended the London Summit, there was no mention of providing a security guarantee to Ukraine.

Security guarantee

Although Prime Minister of Great Britain Keir Starmer welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy extremely kindly, no steps were taken regarding real and concrete security guarantees. Instead, a decision was made to provide Ukraine with more than 5,000 air defense missiles worth £1.6 billion to protect critical infrastructure and ensure future peace.

The British leader has expressed his moral and political support for Ukraine and has made statements emphasizing Ukraine’s importance and British support. He has presented Zelensky as a strong leader and a symbol of the determination of the Ukrainian people but has refrained from making any final decision on security guarantees without the consent of the United States.

The number of those who believe that Europe's failure to take practical steps to defend Ukraine is putting the security of not only Ukraine but the entire old continent at risk is growing every day.

Europe does not see the US as a reliable partner

Ukrainian military-political expert Oleksandr Kovalenko told APA that the scandal that broke out in the White House on February 28 created a "cold shower" effect for European countries: "Europe has long lived under the illusion that the US is a reliable partner, but now it does not see it as a reliable partner. It needs to increase its defense capabilities, its military budget, and its attention to the military-industrial complex. Of course, all this is the result of what European leaders have been observing over the past few months since Donald Trump's inauguration. Donald Trump is pursuing a policy of isolation, not partnership. The London Summit showed that Europe is already starting to think in this direction, whereas in reality, they should have been thinking about their defense capabilities at least since 2022 or even since 2014 - after the hybrid attack of Russian troops on Ukraine. They didn't think about it then, but now they are forced to think."

Although the London Summit attracts attention, it will not have a significant impact on the resolution of the Ukraine conflict


 

Marian Duris, a Slovak advisor to the European Parliament and a foreign policy expert, in an interview with APA described the London Summit as a reaction to the US-Russia talks held without Europe and Ukraine.

This is also a reaction to Mr. Zelenskyy’s meeting at the White House. The organizers of the London Summit are trying to defuse the atmosphere of Zelenskyy’s confrontation, to assure him of continued support, and to convince others that their proposals will bring about a supposedly lasting peace. This meeting will undoubtedly attract a lot of attention, but I think its impact on the resolution of the conflict will not be that great. The US and Russian presidents are playing the “first league” in the negotiations today. Among the most influential participants of the London Summit, I can mention Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Turkish Minister Hakan Fidan. Their countries are in good shape. In the first case, in terms of relations with the US Administration, in the second, in terms of growing geopolitical importance... There is a high chance that the other participants will be perceived as the 'second league' that everyone hopes to get to the bigger table,” he said.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer presented a four-point plan for a peaceful resolution of the military conflict in Ukraine at the London summit. Starmer's plan will be presented to the US President to gain US support.

Speaking about the plan, Marian Duris Starmer said that a "coalition of the willing" will be created to continue the flow of aid to Ukraine: "Starmer has unveiled a plan to support Ukraine, including continued economic pressure on Russia. According to him, any long-term peace agreement must ensure Ukraine's sovereignty and security, and Ukraine must be at the negotiating table. In the event of an agreement, he said that Europe would continue military assistance to Ukraine to deter any future Russian military operation. He also said that a "coalition of the willing" would be created to help Ukraine defend itself."

EU fails to demonstrate unity in approach to Russia-Ukraine conflict

The European Union and NATO countries openly declare their support for Ukraine's sovereignty but have difficulty reaching a common position on practical military and security guarantees. This once again reveals Europe's geopolitical weakness and coordination problems.

The Slovak expert notes that the EU, which consists of 27 countries, has failed to demonstrate unity in its approach to this conflict.

"The differences mainly arise in the ideological nature of the governments of the countries or the proximity or distance of individual countries to the war. Hungary and Slovakia demonstrate a more restrained and peaceful position. Poland claims that it does not want to send peacekeeping forces to the conflict zone. There are other opinions. It seems that a unified position cannot be expected from the European Union countries at this time," Marian Duris emphasized.

London Summit - a stage for political theater


 

Figuratively speaking, the London Summit turned into a political theater stage. The lights in the hall were turned on, the speakers rose to the podium one by one, and applause was heard. There were confident, courageous speeches on stage, and a hesitant silence behind the scenes. Although a show of strength from Europe was expected, there was no mention of a real security guarantee for Ukraine. Statements remained in the air, while reality fell on Ukraine like a heavy shadow.

Was the warm welcome, words of courage and support from the Prime Minister of Great Britain, Keir Starmer, enough to give Volodymyr Zelenskyy hope? Perhaps... However, this hope dissipated like smoke when it collided with reality. The outcome of the summit was nothing more than a diplomatic label on paper for Ukraine.

Security guarantees? This topic was either carefully set aside or ignored. It seemed that the promises made by Europe were nothing more than promises that would never be kept.

All this was like a rerun of a movie that had been made long ago. The script was familiar, the actors had changed, but the plot remained the same. The real support that Ukraine expected was replaced by mere statements and diplomatic gestures. Although the words “We are with you” were often heard, there was no real demonstration of power behind it.


 

This Summit was yet another proof of Europe's hesitation, its dependence on the US, and how Ukraine is left alone in the geopolitical chess game. Decisions made at diplomatic tables are very weak in the face of the sounds of artillery on the battlefield. It became clear once again that statements do not change reality, and symbolic gestures do not silence weapons. The London Summit showed that although Europe stands by Ukraine, it is more like taking care of itself. Europe, which invited Zelenskyy to the Summit, is at the mercy of its own life, making it think more about its own security than about Ukraine. In this sense, the statement made by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, after the summit, "Europe must urgently rearm," speaks volumes. Another question is, if the security of Europe was the main topic of discussion at the London Summit, or in other words, if the issue of ensuring the security of Ukraine was not going to be discussed at the meeting, why was Zelenskyy invited there? Why was it necessary to make the Ukrainian President, who did not leave the White House meeting with a happy ending, have a second unsuccessful meeting in London?

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