How Steinmeier's visit can affect Azerbaijan-Armenia settlement? -ANALYSIS

How Steinmeier
# 03 April 2025 17:57 (UTC +04:00)

On April 2, during German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier's official visit to Azerbaijan, many issues on the agenda of the two countries, including Germany-Azerbaijan relations, regional and global challenges, and important aspects of the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process were discussed.

German-Azerbaijani relations and regional processes

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The advisor of the Academy of Public Administration, chairman of the Baku Political Scientists Club, and political scientist Zaur Mammadov said in his statement to APA that the German President’s visit to Armenia and then to Azerbaijan is a familiarization tour of the region: "Germany-Azerbaijan relations should be viewed both bilaterally and from the perspective of the European Union-Azerbaijan relations. In any case, the German leader came to Azerbaijan and became directly familiar with the situation on the ground, Azerbaijan's relations with Europe and Germany, and the processes in the South Caucasus. I think that, as the leader of Germany, he will be able to present a fair and objective stance on the region during government meetings and meetings of state structures."

President Ilham Aliyev's emphasis on the peace process

During the meeting with the German President, Ilham Aliyev emphasizing that Azerbaijan’s victory in the 44-day Patriotic War, which suffered from Armenia’s occupation policy, paved the way for peace talks, stated that today the positions of Azerbaijan and Armenia have come quite close to each other in achieving peace.

Azerbaijan’s lands were subjected to Armenian occupation for 30 years. Our people were subjected to ethnic cleansing. One million Azerbaijanis were left homeless due to Armenian aggression, and approximately twenty percent of our land was occupied. Unfortunately, international organizations did not take any tangible steps on this issue. Azerbaijan resolved this conflict itself and restored international law on the battlefield and at the political level. It was this historic victory that paved the way for peace negotiations. I believe that today, the positions of Azerbaijan and Armenia have come quite close to each other in achieving peace.”

Peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia: agreement on the treaty

Political scientist Zaur Mammadov also noted that for the first time in the last 100 years, Azerbaijan and Armenia have reached an agreement on issues that did not satisfy or were concerning each other and did not align: "For the first time, we are witnessing an agreement on all provisions of a peace treaty between the two states. As President Ilham Aliyev also pointed out, Armenia has finally understood that after the anti-terrorist measures, there is no hope for anything, and Garabagh is an inseparable part of Azerbaijan. There is no need to indulge in any illusions regarding the Armenians of Garabagh. Currently, there is an agreement on all provisions of the text regarding the peace treaty or normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This is a very positive development."

During his visit to Baku, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, speaking about peace relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, stated that the agreement on the text of the peace treaty will soon lead to the signing of the peace treaty.

“This peace process is of great importance. As an outside observer, I can say that we are very impressed. In other words, great steps have been taken over the past year, great progress has been made. I congratulate both sides on the fact that understanding has already been reached. On March 13, a statement was issued saying that the text of the peace agreement had already been agreed. When I spoke about this agreement this morning, I told Mr. President that this agreement had created a moment of hope. Since this agreement has been reached, I do hope that the situation will develop further and, taking advantage of it, you will soon come to the signing of the peace agreement, and finally, real and lasting peace will be established in your region. I have great hopes for this and urge you not to miss this moment. Despite all the difficulties and obstacles, this road has been covered, many steps have been taken, and it is necessary to go all the way. However, of course, compromises require courage and political will, so that a political agreement can really be implemented and come into force. I do hope that everything will be achieved and we will provide our support in every way possible from the outside.”

Azerbaijan's demands regarding the OSCE Minsk Group and the Armenian constitution

President Ilham Aliyev, during the meeting, reiterated Azerbaijan's demands and principled position for the signing of a peace agreement with Armenia, and emphasized the importance of concrete and goodwill steps from the other side.

“To date, the wording of the peace agreement consisting of 17 paragraphs has been fully agreed upon. Azerbaijan has not put forward any additional conditions here. Our conditions are clear to Armenia and they are not new. We have been putting forward these conditions for a long time. However, we have not received any serious response from the Armenian side to date. What exactly are they? First, the OSCE Minsk Group must be dissolved. The logic behind this is that the OSCE Minsk Group, which was established in 1992, was mandated to resolve the Garabagh conflict. Azerbaijan has resolved the Garabagh conflict itself – on the basis of the UN Charter and within the framework of international law. Since the conflict has been resolved and Armenia officially recognizes Garabagh as Azerbaijani territory, there are no grounds for the de jure operation of the OSCE Minsk Group. This group was not operating de facto anyway. The fact that Armenia does not agree to this, raises a legitimate suspicion in us. I wonder why. Does Armenia perhaps want to put forward territorial claims against us again? Their rapid armament, the acquisition of lethal weapons and the fact that France, their main supporter in this, incites them to new provocations increase these doubts, of course. So this is the first issue. The second issue is related to the constitution of Armenia. The constitution of Armenia contains a reference to the act of independence of Armenia. It is an integral part of the constitution. There is a provision on the unification of the legal and historical territory of Azerbaijan with Armenia, and this is considered an explicit territorial claim against us. Therefore, the removal of this clause from the constitution of Armenia is our legitimate demand. Once these two conditions are met, there will be no obstacle to signing of the peace treaty. As they say, the ball is in Armenia's court. If Armenia is genuinely interested in signing the peace treaty, it has to accept these two legitimate conditions of Azerbaijan.”

Zaur Mammadov noted that the issue of the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group and the change of Armenia's constitution has been one of the main demands in Azerbaijan's foreign policy after the 44-day Patriotic War:

"Starting from December 2020, we have seen the Azerbaijani government's calls for the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group and its inactivity. At the same time, Azerbaijan's conditions regarding the amendment of the Armenian constitution, or more precisely, the adoption of a new constitution, have been known to everyone since 2021. This is because the current constitution poses a threat to Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. These two issues must be resolved. If the Prime Minister of Armenia genuinely wants the signing of a peace treaty between the two countries, he should not delay it, and by tomorrow, he should make a decision regarding both the Minsk Group and the new constitution. If he does not do this, it means his plans are different. He wants to sign the document on the surface, but after signing it, he will act in a deceitful manner regarding the territorial integrity issue. When Azerbaijan takes its steps tomorrow, it knows very well what the Armenian side is capable of, and it was very good that the German leader also became directly familiar with Azerbaijan’s position on this matter."

Support for Azerbaijan's fair demand by the German President

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It is worth reminding that in his statement in Baku, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier also stated that Azerbaijan's conditions regarding the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group and the amendment of Armenia's constitution should not become an obstacle to achieving lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

“The wording of the agreement has already been developed. It is a huge task to reach an agreement at this time. I do hope that in addition to that, there will also be agreement on the conditions President Aliyev has just mentioned. In my opinion, they should not become an obstacle to achieving lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia,” Mr. Steinmeier highlighted.

According to Zaur Mammadov, the German President's this statement can be considered as support for Azerbaijan's rightful position: “This is already support for Azerbaijan's position by the German leader. It would be good if Germany put pressure on Pashinyan on this issue, so that he quickly accepts Azerbaijan's rightful conditions and reaches an agreement. Since the text of the peace treaty has been fully agreed upon, Armenia has practically given a verbal agreement to fulfill the two conditions mentioned by Azerbaijan. Putting this into a legal framework should not be a very difficult task."

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