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Sidar Global Advisorsâ€™ Managing Director: â€œThe smartest move for the Azeri government would probably be strengthening its ties with NATO in a balanced way to make sure it does not directly confront Iranâ€

09 September 2011 10:21 (UTC +04:00)

Washington. Isabel Levine â€“ APA. APA US correspondentâ€™s interview with Cenk Sidar, Managing Director of Sidar Global Advisors, Washington DC-based think-tank

- Where do you see Turkey in the region and in the world after its announcement about installing NATO missile defense radars?

- The deployment of the US AN/TPY-2 X-band radar in Diyarbakir will increase NATO’s military capabilities and deterrence in the region, and will serve as a major component of the alliance’s new strategy. It is a well-known fact that the Turkish military has been strongly in need for a sophisticated missile protection system against ballistic missiles since the Persian Gulf War. Providing access to this radar system will strengthen the Turkish military’s capabilities and improve Turkey’s standing both in the region and globally.

- Do you see any influence of these radars on West- Iran and West- Russia regional politics?

- I donâ€™t think the recent decision will deepen the existing dividing lines between West and Iran. The major fault line between the international community and Iran is Tehran’s plan to build nuclear capability, and this will remain the biggest roadblock regardless of the NATO radar system being deployed.

Iranian authorities are not prepared to back down on their nuclear program. The software worm Stuxnet, which hit Iran over a year ago, had damaged the program’s first-generation centrifuges, but Tehran has now upgraded its uranium enrichment capabilities. There seems little prospect of resurrecting nuclear talks between Iran and the international community, and the recently leaked International Atomic Energy Agency report citing "increasing concern" about Iran’s nuclear ambitions has further increased tension. The international community has little leverage over Iran. The deployment of the radar could serve as a major leverage factor, however, and contribute to a solution in the long term.

Even though Russiaâ€™s ambassador to NATO sought to defuse Russia’s role in the current debate by noting that the radar would not pose a direct threat to Moscow’s strategic arsenal, disregarding Russian concerns may create a short-term tension in the country’s relationship with NATO. However, we do not expect a new major crisis with Russia because of this decision, as we expect cooperation in broader issues to continue.

- What will Iranâ€™s response be to Turkeyâ€™s decision?

- Tehran will surely not welcome the decision. In the short term, the Iranian reaction probably will be limited to political public statements and critiques. However, I do not expect a radical move by Iran that would risk harming its overall relations with Turkey, losing an important neighbor and a potential broker in its negotiations with the international community. Turkey’s worsening relations with Israel would also be another factor keeping Iran from alienating Turkey.

- What should be Azerbaijanâ€™s position in this situation to ensure its security and development?

- The current developments in countries in its close proximity have increased the strategic importance of Azerbaijan, and could force the Azeri government to be more active in the region’s disputes. However, the smartest move for the Azeri government would probably be strengthening its ties with NATO in a balanced way to make sure it does not directly confront Iran.

- Does the placement of missile defense radar in Turkey mean Washington lost its interest in cooperation with Russia on Gabala Radar Station?

A. Russia’s proposal was a great chance for Azerbaijan to act as a joint operation base, and balance its relations with both NATO and Moscow. However, given the uncertainty that surrounds Washington’s potential interest in the joint operation of Gabala radar station, the proposal does not seem feasible in light of the decision to put radar in Turkey.