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US analyst: â€œMoscow has used the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh to pressure both sidesâ€

27 November 2010 10:20 (UTC +04:00)

The report was prepared for Members and Committees of the Congress.

The author reminds that, at the July 2009 summit, President Obama and Russian leaders discussed the frozen conflicts in South Caucasus, including Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Azerbaijanâ€™s breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region, and agreed to continue cooperative efforts to resolve the conflict.

Washington considers that the Russian idea of a â€œsphere of influenceâ€ in the Soviet successor states does not belong in the 21st century. â€œThe two presidents did agree, however, that â€œno one has an interest in renewed military conflict.â€

The analyst reminded that, after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the turmoil associated with the Yeltsin period, a consensus emerged as the Putin era began on reestablishing Russiaâ€™s global prestige as a â€œgreat powerâ€ and its dominance in â€œthe former Soviet space.â€

â€œThe pursuit of these goals by then-President Putin and his closest policy advisors seemed to be driven by the belief that the West, and in particular the United States, had taken advantage of Russiaâ€™s political turmoil and overall weakness during the Yeltsin years. Putin and his advisors were determined to restore what they believed to be Russiaâ€™s rightful place as a significant influence on the world stageâ€ the report says.

The author also stated that, one of the Russiaâ€™s instruments on that region is energy pipelines. â€œThose concerned about the possible consequences of overdependence on Russia for energy have called for the building of pipelines circumventing Russian territory that would transport non- Russian gas supplies to Europe. The EU is supporting the creation of the Nabucco pipeline, which could have a capacity of 31 bcm per year. It would get its supplies from Azerbaijan and perhaps Turkmenistan through pipelines in Georgia and Turkey. Nabucco received a boost in July 2009, when Austria, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey signed an intergovernmental agreement on the project. It is hoped that work on the pipeline could begin in 2012, with the first gas supplies available by 2015 and full capacity reached in 2019. While denying that Nabucco and South Stream are conflicting projects, Russian officials have cast doubt on Nabuccoâ€™s prospects, claiming that the gas supplies for such a pipeline may be difficult to find. Russia has attempted to buy up gas supplies in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, in what some analysts view as an attempt to undermine Nabucco. In order to build political support for South Stream, Russia has tried to entice key western European companies to participate in the project. It has also discussed the possibility of changing the route for the pipeline in order to play potential transit countries off against each otherâ€.

In the end, the analyst however mentioned that, according to some Russian public opinion polls, popular attitudes toward the United States have improved in recent months.