US-Russia pact is one small step closer to nuclear Utopia
The two other leaps this week were the nuclear posture review, which vowed that the US would not use such weapons against non-nuclear states, and apparent progress in getting China and Russia on board for new UN sanctions against Iran.
Critics retort that progress, such as it is, is minor, and that Obama has little support for his wistful call for a world free of nuclear weapons. He said he knows that he probably will not see that in his lifetime.
All the same, with a boost to his authority from the healthcare victory, he is picking a path through previously impenetrable territory. He may have reversed a drift towards proliferation that seemed unstoppable.
The first test will come on Monday at his nuclear security summit when 40 heads of state and government will visit Washington.
When Obama devised the summit, which aims to stop terrorists getting nuclear material, it sounded like a platform for platitudes. But this week has sharpened it into a test of whether countries with civil nuclear power will allow more inspections of their plants and fuel stores, and back controls to block smuggling.
That test will be repeated in May, in a crucial five-year review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, arguably the world’s most successful arms control pact, which is in danger of unravelling.
Iran’s nuclear work, which it insists is for electricity but many suspect is a covert weapons programme, has provoked Arab countries to build nuclear power stations too. Only Jordan and the United Arab Emirates have promised to buy in their fuel.
Obama may have done enough, through US arms cuts, to persuade more countries to sign up to intrusive UN inspections, the reinforcement that the treaty badly needs.
True, there are big holes in yesterday’s deal. Congress has not yet approved the pact, and many Republicans are hostile. Nor can Russia’s and China’s support on Iran sanctions be assumed. Beijing may be avoiding confrontation only to threaten a veto when the UN Security Council nears voting.
But this week has at least brought progress on proliferation, where for years there has been only a rising threat.
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