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Kyrgyzstan to vote amid fears of more violence

07 October 2010 00:50 (UTC +04:00)

Baku â€“ APA. Kyrgyzstan votes in a crucial election on Sunday which interim leaders hope will help unite the country but opponents fear could trigger more violence and leave the south vulnerable to ethnic extremists and militant Islamists, APA reports quoting â€œReutersâ€.
Kyrgyzstan’s election on October 10 is intended to create Central Asia’s first parliamentary democracy, where the prime minister will have more power than the president.
Interim leaders want the vote to empower a new prime minister to unite a country plagued by political and ethnic divisions, which erupted into clashes between ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks killing 400 people and making thousands homeless in June.
But opponents say parliamentary rule could leave the mountainous former Soviet republic prone to further violence as rival factions battle for power, leaving its volatile south vulnerable to ethnic extremists and militant Islamists.
"The situation is highly explosive -- powerful nationalist forces in the Kyrgyz society and establishment spare no effort to hold Uzbeks responsible for June’s bloodshed, which sparks strong anger among the latter," said Alexander Knyazev, senior researcher at the Moscow Institute of Oriental Studies.
"The conflict has not been resolved. It has become latent."
Analysts say trouble may come from some highly placed officials who secretly fomented or supported the violence.
"If certain people know they will lose their high-ranking posts after the election, then it’s in their interest to destabilize the situation," said Adil Mukashev, an independent expert on terrorism issues based in Almaty, Kazahkstan. "They could take steps to remain in power or create chaos."
Russia and the United States both operate military air bases in Kyrgyzstan, a nation of 5.3 million people at the heart of Central Asia, a strategic, resource-rich region wedged between Russia, China, Afghanistan and Iran.
China, keen to keep increasing its influence in a region rich in the energy it needs to fuel fast economic growth, is also wary of mounting instability on its borders.
APPEAL TO MOSCOW AS THREATS LOOM
Kyrgyzstan’s electorate of some 2.8 million faces a hard puzzle, with 29 political parties battling over 120 parliament seats. Analysts say only six parties have a realistic chance.
Voters will be handed 72-cm (28-inch) long ballot papers naming the parties, whose programmes are often similar. All voting will be for party lists, not individual candidates.
Analysts say voters will make their choices based on well known personalities among party leaders rather than the parties.
Several rival parties are led by senior officials from within the interim government that assumed control after the April 7 revolt that toppled President Kurmanbek Bakiyev.
Omurbek Tekebayev was the architect of the constitutional reforms that made the election possible. Among his main rivals is Almazbek Atambayev, interim President Roza Otunbayeva’s deputy in the immediate aftermath of the April revolt.
Atambayev has travelled to Moscow and most recently met with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in September.
But Russia may be backing another candidate: Felix Kulov, once a prime minister under Bakiyev. Kilov last month visited Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at his residence near Moscow.
Kulov’s pledge to reverse the constitutional reforms chimes with Medvedev’s concerns that a parliamentary democracy would create factionalism and open the door for a power grab by extremist groups.
"The situation in the south is ideal for Islamists willing to recruit supporters," analyst Knyazev told Reuters.
"When Uzbeks were buried during June’s clashes, mainly young Uzbeks would say, ’The Kyrgyz government has abandoned us, Russia has declined to send help -- just like the U.N. and OSCE -- and Uzbekistan shut up its borders. Islam is the only hope’."
Kyrgyz Interior Minister Zarylbek Rysaliyev said on Monday he knew of about 10 "areas of potential clashes" in the country, "with some hotheads planning to snatch ballot boxes."
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which has deployed 22 long-term observers around the country and expects another 300 monitors for election day, said the security situation was tense, particularly in the south, which may deter ethnic Uzbeks from casting their ballots.
Mukashev said the success of the elections would face its toughest test in the aftermath, when the losers may challenge the results in the courthouses and the streets -- and thirst for power could prompt winners to abandon democratic goals.