Last week's phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin broke a long-standing silence in US-Russia relations.
Following his phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump also spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The US President's separate talks with the conflicting parties can be seen as the beginning of negotiations to end the war.
Normalizing blocked relationships
The director of the Russian Institute for Political Studies, political scientist Sergey Markov, said that the phone call between the leaders of Russia and the United States marked the actual beginning of contact between the two countries.
According to the political scientist, these talks are divided into three different aspects: “The first aspect is negotiations on resolving the Ukrainian crisis. The second is the normalization of relations that were blocked even during the Biden and Obama administrations, and the third is substantive negotiations on other relations. Trump has appointed two special representatives. Keith Kellogg will be engaged in negotiations with Europe and Ukraine. The second is Steve Witkoff, who has demonstrated his competence in negotiations between Hamas and Israel. He will also be responsible for the Russian direction.”
Ukrainian political scientist and military expert Alexander Kovalenko told APA that the phone call between the US and Russian leaders marked the actual beginning of contact between the two countries.
"This phone call is a preliminary contact between the parties, which at the moment does not mean any obvious results or actions, but only announcements. Ukraine and Russia have their own positions, their own ultimatums, and their own goals. This cannot be expected in the coming days or weeks. This may take months, it may coincide with the second half of the spring. However, the situation is so complicated that it is impossible to immediately see a concrete result from the negotiations. Currently, we are simply watching a large number of statements, some of which are just empty. Therefore, I do not see the prospects for peace talks in the context of short-term events. But in general, it would be good if this process began in 2025."
Agreement on the meeting was reached
During the phone call, Kremlin press service chief Dmitry Peskov said that the presidents agreed to continue personal contacts, in particular, to organize a meeting.
Saudi Arabia has been chosen as the venue for the meeting. The Saudi Foreign Ministry has said it is ready to be a platform for the talks.
Venue of Putin-Trump meeting - Saudi Arabia
Sergey Markov said that the talks will begin this week in Saudi Arabia: "A telephone conversation took place between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. There were very important talks. They decided on one of the most important issues in these talks - the full restoration of diplomatic relations between Russia and the United States. Then, negotiations will begin on holding a summit between Putin and Trump in Saudi Arabia. I think the summit will take place in Saudi Arabia soon."
Alexander Kovalenko, on the other hand, expressed skepticism about the meeting in Saudi Arabia. He said that so far there has been no official confirmation in Ukraine that the Ukrainian side will also participate in the meeting in Saudi Arabia: "Vladimir Zelensky has not confirmed this. Currently, Ukraine is not ready for a meeting with Russia. We see no reason and basis for holding a meeting, and at the same time, Russia also believes so. I think that it is unrealistic to hold talks in such a format in Saudi Arabia in the near future. Even if informal, official meetings that take place somewhere else, not in Saudi Arabia, will not have any impact on the dynamics of the conflict. The fighting will continue as it is, both in Ukraine and in Russia.”
On the demands and concessions of the conflicting parties
It is possible that the parties sitting around the negotiating table to stop the war will make concessions along with their demands. Political experts from both countries spoke about the demands and concessions of their countries.
Sergey Markov said that Russia’s demands have not changed: “Our demands remain the same. That is, first of all, denazification! Denazification simply means the elimination of the existing terrorist system in Ukraine. And demilitarization. In addition, derussification, that is, all laws that abolish or prohibit the Russian language must be abolished, the Russian language must be declared the second state language. All political repressions against the Orthodox Church must be abolished, all churches taken from the Orthodox Church must be returned. Anti-Russian sanctions must be lifted so that the blocked 300 billion euros and dollars that should be transferred to Russia, can be unlocked."
Ukrainian political scientist Kovalenko also emphasized that his country's demands are quite transparent: "Our demand is the territorial integrity of Ukraine, the restoration of the 1991 borders. However, we understand very well that Russia will never make such compromises, so there may be alternative options for the start of peace talks. For example, Ukraine may have its borders as of February 21, 2022, that is, the borders before the start of the full-scale occupation. Of course, this is without any legal recognition, without assuming legal power or control over the territories occupied by Russia since 2014. That is, these may be our initial conditions."
Touching on the issue of stopping the war, Kovalenko said that this is advisable but impossible: "The war between Ukraine and Russia will not stop, it will subside, but it will not end completely. It is important to approach these issues objectively."
What concessions can be made to start peace talks
Recalling that Putin is not against talks with Zelensky, Russian expert Markov said that Zelensky adopted a decree in the National Security Council banning any talks between Ukraine and Russia during Putin's presidency: "Therefore, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are currently prohibited. This ban is mandatory for everyone, including Zelensky. Therefore, if Zelensky is going to hold talks, he must first cancel this decree. He cannot cancel it now, because his term of office has expired, he is now an illegitimate president. Zelensky says that we are against new elections, the population is against new elections. Yes, the population is against new elections. The Constitution clearly states that if martial law is established, parliamentary elections can be postponed, but nothing is said about postponing presidential elections. Well, we can somehow turn a blind eye to Ukraine's violation of its own laws. But when it comes to signing a peace treaty, the situation changes. From Russia's point of view, Zelensky is not a legitimate president. This means that he cannot sign this peace treaty. We do not have a bad attitude towards Zelensky. The fact is that the next president can easily refuse this signature of Zelensky. The next president will say, "You idiot, who did you sign the agreement with? After all, he is an illegitimate president. Therefore, I do not recognize this agreement, and for me it is just a piece of paper that Zelensky signed." Therefore, Zelensky is now in a position of a de facto illegitimate president, Ukraine must first resolve this issue legally."
Ukrainian political expert Kovalenko said that official Kyiv will not recognize even a single square meter of territory occupied by Russia as Russian territory: “Ukraine’s position on this issue is quite strict, and we will never give up our right to return these territories in any way in the future. In general, Russia should understand this well. It cannot wage this war forever. In its current state, 2025 could be critical for Russia. If it does not reach an agreement in 2025, then in 2026 the Russian front will begin to collapse, and Russian generals should understand this. Russia will suffer more losses in 2026 than in 2024 or 2025. Therefore, there is not much of a choice. The situation is currently deteriorating. Therefore, Russia must accept our positions. The Russian side often demonstrates pompous enthusiasm, but it is necessary to proceed from realities. Realities are not good for Russia. They did not capture a single regional center during 2024. On the contrary, they lost part of their territory during 2024. Now the advance of Russian troops has slowed down significantly compared to 2024. However, the losses are constantly increasing. All this shows that the Russian side’s position in the negotiations is very weak and will simply be forced to make concessions.”
Can force be used against Russia if Putin does not go to negotiations?
US Vice President JD Vance said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that Washington could impose sanctions on Moscow and military actions could be carried out if Russian President Vladimir Putin does not agree to a peace agreement with Ukraine that guarantees long-term independence.
Speaking to APA about Washington's threats, Stephen Blank, a fellow at the US Foreign Policy Research Institute, said that the most serious sanctions that could be imposed are sanctions against Russian energy buyers: "Quite frankly I don’t believe that the Trump Administration has any intention of responding to Putin with military actions if he refuses a peace deal. And the habitual American belief that sanctions can substitute for an effective policy or strategy that also academic question for Putin has every reasonincludes the use of force is a mirage. As for sanctions that could be imposed the most serious would be sanctions on buyers of Russian energy and “secondary sanctions” on banks and businesses doing business with Russia.
However, this is an academic question since Putin will not refuse to negotiate. He is far too clever for that. Instead, he will insist on his original goals that entail the destruction of Ukrainian sovereignty and its eventual incorporation into Russia as well as the repudiation of all NATO’s advances since 1991. In effect he wishes to restore the Russian empire, and make it the supreme power in a Europe deprived of American protection and Trump and his team apparently do not understand this or care about it."
The American political scientist called Vance's ideas about military operations completely unthinkable: "Therefore it is quite inconceivable that Vance was serious about military tools since Secretary of Defense Hegseth has stated flatly that no American troops will enforce any peace nor will Ukraine become a member of NATO. Thus (and third) no military actions against Russia will be entertained.
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